2026 season
Backtested edges this model actually has (walk-forward, 2014–2025): spreads vs early-week lines at edge ≥3, weeks 4+ (53.6%, p=0.009); totals weeks 1–3. Flat 1 unit — bigger edges did not win more in backtesting. Break-even is 52.4% at −110. Run picks early in the week; apply your injury/news read before betting.
This week's picks →Top 25 projected win totals
| # | Team | Proj rating | SOS | 10th–90th | Mean wins | Vegas | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas Tech | 20.7 | -4.8 | 9–12 | 10.5 | 10.5 | +0.0 |
| 2 | Indiana | 24.3 | 3.8 | 8–11 | 9.9 | 10.5 | -0.6 |
| 3 | Notre Dame | 18.4 | -0.7 | 8–11 | 9.8 | 11.5 | -1.7 |
| 4 | Miami | 15.6 | -1.5 | 7–11 | 9.3 | 10.5 | -1.2 |
| 5 | Oregon | 19.5 | 2.4 | 7–11 | 9.2 | 10.5 | -1.3 |
| 6 | Utah | 16.7 | 0.5 | 7–11 | 9.2 | 8.5 | +0.7 |
| 7 | James Madison | 9.3 | -6.8 | 7–11 | 9.1 | — | — |
| 8 | Ohio State | 22.6 | 6.7 | 7–11 | 9.0 | 9.5 | -0.5 |
| 9 | South Florida | 8.8 | -5.4 | 7–11 | 8.8 | 8.5 | +0.3 |
| 10 | Penn State | 13.6 | 1.9 | 7–10 | 8.6 | 8.5 | +0.1 |
| 11 | North Texas | 10.4 | -3.8 | 7–10 | 8.5 | — | — |
| 12 | Georgia | 18.1 | 5.5 | 7–10 | 8.5 | 9.5 | -1.0 |
| 13 | Ole Miss | 18.1 | 4.3 | 7–10 | 8.5 | 7.5 | +1.0 |
| 14 | SMU | 10.1 | -2.3 | 7–10 | 8.5 | 8.5 | +0.0 |
| 15 | Virginia | 8.4 | -3.3 | 7–10 | 8.4 | — | — |
| 16 | Iowa | 14.8 | 1.9 | 7–10 | 8.4 | 7.5 | +0.9 |
| 17 | Texas A&M | 15.6 | 3.4 | 6–10 | 8.3 | 8.5 | -0.2 |
| 18 | Vanderbilt | 15.3 | 3.6 | 6–10 | 8.3 | 5.5 | +2.8 |
| 19 | Toledo | 4.6 | -9.7 | 6–10 | 8.2 | 7.5 | +0.7 |
| 20 | Old Dominion | 4.5 | -6.1 | 6–10 | 8.1 | — | — |
| 21 | UConn | 3.9 | -6.7 | 6–10 | 8.1 | 5.5 | +2.6 |
| 22 | East Carolina | 6.1 | -5.1 | 6–10 | 8.1 | 7.5 | +0.6 |
| 23 | BYU | 12.0 | 2.1 | 6–10 | 8.0 | 8.5 | -0.5 |
| 24 | Pittsburgh | 6.4 | -2.3 | 6–10 | 7.8 | 7.5 | +0.3 |
| 25 | Louisville | 9.4 | 0.2 | 6–10 | 7.8 | 7.5 | +0.3 |