2026 season
Backtested edges this model actually has (walk-forward, 2014–2025): spreads vs early-week lines at edge ≥3, weeks 4+ (53.6%, p=0.009); totals weeks 2–3 (week 1: no picks — no data yet). Flat 1 unit — bigger edges did not win more in backtesting. Break-even is 52.4% at −110. Run picks early in the week; apply your injury/news read before betting.
This week's picks →Top 25 projected win totals
Click a column header to sort.
How to read this table
- ▲ / ▼ flag
- The market model's lean vs the Vegas number (see the Surprises page), shown when it's 0.75+ wins: ▲ lean over, ▼ lean under. Hover for the number. Validated against eight years of real Vegas totals: flagged teams missed by 2+ wins in the arrow's direction 28% of the time (average team 19%) and the wrong way only 11%.
- Proj rating
- Projected team strength on the SP+ scale: points better (+) or worse (−) than an average FBS team on a neutral field. +27 means a 27-point favorite over an average team; 0 is exactly average; −20 is a 20-point underdog to an average team. Built from last year's final SP+, returning production, portal production gained/lost, and the 4-year recruiting-class average.
- SOS
- Strength of schedule: the average Proj rating of this team's scheduled opponents. Same scale as Proj rating, so higher = harder: +14 means a typical opponent is a top-15-caliber team; −5 means a typical opponent is a bit below average. FCS opponents count at about −25.
- Mean wins
- Average regular-season wins across 10,000 simulated seasons of the team's actual schedule (bowls and playoff excluded). Driven by Proj rating vs. each opponent's rating plus home field.
- Picked
- Record if the model's favorite wins every single game — click a team name for the game-by-game picks. Runs higher than Mean wins for good teams and lower for bad ones (a team favored 60/40 five times wins about three, not five). Use Mean wins for the Vegas comparison.
- 10th–90th
- The range of wins the team landed in 80% of the simulations. A 7–11 range means 10% of seasons finished below 7 wins and 10% above 11.
- Games
- Regular-season games currently on the schedule that the model can simulate (most teams 12; a few show 10–11 where an opponent isn't yet in the model, e.g. a new FBS program or an unannounced game).
- Vegas
- Sportsbook consensus season win total (over/under), as of the date noted in the project status.
- Edge
- Mean wins minus Vegas. Positive = model leans OVER, negative = model leans UNDER. Edges beyond about ±1.5 are worth a look; check what the model can't see (QB situations, coaching changes, injuries) before betting.
| # | Team | Proj rating | SOS | 10th–90th | Mean wins | Picked | Vegas | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas Tech | 23.9 | -2.5 | 10–12 | 10.9 | 12-0 | 10.5 | +0.4 |
| 2 | Miami | 21.2 | -0.2 | 9–12 | 10.1 | 11-1 | 10.5 | -0.4 |
| 3 | Notre Dame | 20.1 | 0.4 | 9–12 | 10.1 | 12-0 | 11.5 | -1.4 |
| 4 | Oregon | 25.2 | 5.4 | 8–11 | 9.8 | 11-1 | 10.5 | -0.7 |
| 5 | Utah | 17.5 | 1.0 | 8–11 | 9.6 | 12-0 | 8.5 | +1.1 |
| 6 | Ohio State | 26.4 | 9.2 | 8–11 | 9.4 | 12-0 | 9.5 | -0.1 |
| 7 | Georgia | 22.9 | 7.6 | 7–11 | 9.3 | 12-0 | 9.5 | -0.2 |
| 8 | Indiana ▼ | 21.1 | 5.6 | 7–11 | 9.3 | 11-1 | 10.5 | -1.2 |
| 9 | Texas A&M | 19.9 | 6.0 | 7–10 | 8.7 | 11-1 | 8.5 | +0.2 |
| 10 | Penn State | 14.7 | 3.9 | 7–10 | 8.6 | 10-2 | 8.5 | +0.1 |
| 11 | Toledo | 4.4 | -10.3 | 7–10 | 8.4 | 11-0 | 7.5 | +0.9 |
| 12 | South Florida | 3.2 | -7.0 | 6–10 | 8.4 | 10-2 | 8.5 | -0.1 |
| 13 | James Madison ▼ | 2.2 | -7.7 | 6–10 | 8.3 | 11-1 | 8.5 | -0.2 |
| 14 | BYU | 12.4 | 2.6 | 6–10 | 8.1 | 10-2 | 8.5 | -0.4 |
| 15 | Louisville | 11.3 | 1.6 | 6–10 | 8.1 | 11-1 | 8.5 | -0.4 |
| 16 | SMU | 8.8 | -0.7 | 6–10 | 8.1 | 9-3 | 8.5 | -0.4 |
| 17 | Virginia | 7.3 | -1.4 | 6–10 | 8.0 | 10-2 | 7.5 | +0.5 |
| 18 | Ole Miss | 18.4 | 7.7 | 6–10 | 8.0 | 9-3 | 7.5 | +0.5 |
| 19 | Iowa | 14.2 | 4.4 | 6–10 | 8.0 | 9-3 | 7.5 | +0.5 |
| 20 | USC | 16.3 | 7.4 | 6–10 | 7.9 | 8-4 | 8.5 | -0.6 |
| 21 | Oklahoma | 18.1 | 9.3 | 6–10 | 7.9 | 10-2 | 8.5 | -0.6 |
| 22 | North Texas | 3.2 | -5.4 | 6–10 | 7.9 | 8-4 | 5.5 | +2.4 |
| 23 | Memphis | 2.2 | -6.3 | 6–10 | 7.9 | 9-3 | 7.5 | +0.4 |
| 24 | Texas ▼ | 19.1 | 12.1 | 6–10 | 7.8 | 10-2 | 9.5 | -1.7 |
| 25 | East Carolina | 1.5 | -6.4 | 6–10 | 7.8 | 10-2 | 7.5 | +0.3 |