2026 projected win totals — all teams
Click a column header to sort (numeric columns: biggest first, click again to flip).
How to read this table
- ▲ / ▼ flag
- The market model's lean vs the Vegas number (see the Surprises page), shown when it's 0.75+ wins: ▲ lean over, ▼ lean under. Hover for the number. Validated against eight years of real Vegas totals: flagged teams missed by 2+ wins in the arrow's direction 28% of the time (average team 19%) and the wrong way only 11%.
- Proj rating
- Projected team strength on the SP+ scale: points better (+) or worse (−) than an average FBS team on a neutral field. +27 means a 27-point favorite over an average team; 0 is exactly average; −20 is a 20-point underdog to an average team. Built from last year's final SP+, returning production, portal production gained/lost, and the 4-year recruiting-class average.
- SOS
- Strength of schedule: the average Proj rating of this team's scheduled opponents. Same scale as Proj rating, so higher = harder: +14 means a typical opponent is a top-15-caliber team; −5 means a typical opponent is a bit below average. FCS opponents count at about −25.
- Mean wins
- Average regular-season wins across 10,000 simulated seasons of the team's actual schedule (bowls and playoff excluded). Driven by Proj rating vs. each opponent's rating plus home field.
- Picked
- Record if the model's favorite wins every single game — click a team name for the game-by-game picks. Runs higher than Mean wins for good teams and lower for bad ones (a team favored 60/40 five times wins about three, not five). Use Mean wins for the Vegas comparison.
- 10th–90th
- The range of wins the team landed in 80% of the simulations. A 7–11 range means 10% of seasons finished below 7 wins and 10% above 11.
- Games
- Regular-season games currently on the schedule that the model can simulate (most teams 12; a few show 10–11 where an opponent isn't yet in the model, e.g. a new FBS program or an unannounced game).
- Vegas
- Sportsbook consensus season win total (over/under), as of the date noted in the project status.
- Edge
- Mean wins minus Vegas. Positive = model leans OVER, negative = model leans UNDER. Edges beyond about ±1.5 are worth a look; check what the model can't see (QB situations, coaching changes, injuries) before betting.
| # | Team | Games | Proj rating | SOS | 10th–90th | Mean wins | Picked | Vegas | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas Tech | 12 | 23.9 | -2.5 | 10–12 | 10.9 | 12-0 | 10.5 | +0.4 |
| 2 | Miami | 12 | 21.2 | -0.2 | 9–12 | 10.1 | 11-1 | 10.5 | -0.4 |
| 3 | Notre Dame | 12 | 20.1 | 0.4 | 9–12 | 10.1 | 12-0 | 11.5 | -1.4 |
| 4 | Oregon | 12 | 25.2 | 5.4 | 8–11 | 9.8 | 11-1 | 10.5 | -0.7 |
| 5 | Utah | 12 | 17.5 | 1.0 | 8–11 | 9.6 | 12-0 | 8.5 | +1.1 |
| 6 | Ohio State | 12 | 26.4 | 9.2 | 8–11 | 9.4 | 12-0 | 9.5 | -0.1 |
| 7 | Georgia | 12 | 22.9 | 7.6 | 7–11 | 9.3 | 12-0 | 9.5 | -0.2 |
| 8 | Indiana ▼ | 12 | 21.1 | 5.6 | 7–11 | 9.3 | 11-1 | 10.5 | -1.2 |
| 9 | Texas A&M | 12 | 19.9 | 6.0 | 7–10 | 8.7 | 11-1 | 8.5 | +0.2 |
| 10 | Penn State | 12 | 14.7 | 3.9 | 7–10 | 8.6 | 10-2 | 8.5 | +0.1 |
| 11 | Toledo | 11 | 4.4 | -10.3 | 7–10 | 8.4 | 11-0 | 7.5 | +0.9 |
| 12 | South Florida | 12 | 3.2 | -7.0 | 6–10 | 8.4 | 10-2 | 8.5 | -0.1 |
| 13 | James Madison ▼ | 12 | 2.2 | -7.7 | 6–10 | 8.3 | 11-1 | 8.5 | -0.2 |
| 14 | BYU | 12 | 12.4 | 2.6 | 6–10 | 8.1 | 10-2 | 8.5 | -0.4 |
| 15 | Louisville | 12 | 11.3 | 1.6 | 6–10 | 8.1 | 11-1 | 8.5 | -0.4 |
| 16 | SMU | 12 | 8.8 | -0.7 | 6–10 | 8.1 | 9-3 | 8.5 | -0.4 |
| 17 | Virginia | 12 | 7.3 | -1.4 | 6–10 | 8.0 | 10-2 | 7.5 | +0.5 |
| 18 | Ole Miss | 12 | 18.4 | 7.7 | 6–10 | 8.0 | 9-3 | 7.5 | +0.5 |
| 19 | Iowa | 12 | 14.2 | 4.4 | 6–10 | 8.0 | 9-3 | 7.5 | +0.5 |
| 20 | USC | 12 | 16.3 | 7.4 | 6–10 | 7.9 | 8-4 | 8.5 | -0.6 |
| 21 | Oklahoma | 12 | 18.1 | 9.3 | 6–10 | 7.9 | 10-2 | 8.5 | -0.6 |
| 22 | North Texas | 12 | 3.2 | -5.4 | 6–10 | 7.9 | 8-4 | 5.5 | +2.4 |
| 23 | Memphis | 12 | 2.2 | -6.3 | 6–10 | 7.9 | 9-3 | 7.5 | +0.4 |
| 24 | Texas ▼ | 12 | 19.1 | 12.1 | 6–10 | 7.8 | 10-2 | 9.5 | -1.7 |
| 25 | East Carolina | 12 | 1.5 | -6.4 | 6–10 | 7.8 | 10-2 | 7.5 | +0.3 |
| 26 | Western Kentucky | 12 | -0.7 | -7.8 | 6–9 | 7.7 | 10-2 | 7.5 | +0.2 |
| 27 | LSU | 12 | 16.0 | 7.4 | 6–10 | 7.7 | 7-5 | 8.5 | -0.8 |
| 28 | Houston | 12 | 7.9 | -0.0 | 6–10 | 7.7 | 9-3 | 8.5 | -0.8 |
| 29 | Western Michigan | 12 | 0.3 | -6.9 | 6–9 | 7.6 | 9-3 | 7.5 | +0.1 |
| 30 | Marshall | 12 | -2.3 | -9.2 | 6–9 | 7.6 | 9-3 | 7.5 | +0.1 |
| 31 | Clemson | 12 | 9.5 | 1.9 | 6–9 | 7.6 | 9-3 | 7.5 | +0.1 |
| 32 | NC State | 12 | 6.8 | 0.0 | 6–9 | 7.5 | 8-4 | 7.5 | +0.0 |
| 33 | Washington | 12 | 13.6 | 6.3 | 6–9 | 7.5 | 9-3 | 7.5 | +0.0 |
| 34 | San Diego State | 11 | 6.6 | -2.9 | 6–9 | 7.4 | 10-1 | 7.5 | -0.1 |
| 35 | Illinois | 12 | 10.7 | 3.9 | 5–9 | 7.4 | 8-4 | 7.5 | -0.1 |
| 36 | Tennessee | 12 | 13.7 | 6.5 | 5–9 | 7.3 | 9-3 | 7.5 | -0.2 |
| 37 | Kansas State ▼ | 12 | 6.6 | 0.7 | 5–9 | 7.3 | 9-3 | 8.5 | -1.2 |
| 38 | Alabama ▼ | 12 | 14.8 | 8.0 | 5–9 | 7.3 | 7-5 | 8.5 | -1.2 |
| 39 | Georgia Tech | 12 | 7.5 | 1.8 | 5–9 | 7.2 | 7-5 | 6.5 | +0.7 |
| 40 | Auburn | 12 | 14.0 | 7.4 | 5–9 | 7.2 | 8-4 | 6.5 | +0.7 |
| 41 | UTSA | 12 | 1.1 | -4.4 | 5–9 | 7.2 | 9-3 | 7.5 | -0.3 |
| 42 | Pittsburgh | 12 | 5.6 | 0.2 | 5–9 | 7.2 | 9-3 | 7.5 | -0.3 |
| 43 | Vanderbilt | 12 | 12.2 | 6.0 | 5–9 | 7.2 | 8-4 | 5.5 | +1.7 |
| 44 | Michigan ▼ | 12 | 13.7 | 9.2 | 5–9 | 7.2 | 8-4 | 8.5 | -1.3 |
| 45 | Louisiana | 12 | -4.7 | -9.2 | 5–9 | 7.1 | 9-3 | 7.5 | -0.4 |
| 46 | Florida State ▲ | 12 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 5–9 | 7.1 | 9-3 | 5.5 | +1.6 |
| 47 | Louisiana Tech | 12 | -1.8 | -5.9 | 5–9 | 7.0 | 10-2 | 5.5 | +1.5 |
| 48 | Arizona | 12 | 8.7 | 3.8 | 5–9 | 7.0 | 7-5 | 7.5 | -0.5 |
| 49 | Liberty | 12 | -8.2 | -12.3 | 5–9 | 7.0 | 9-3 | 8.5 | -1.5 |
| 50 | Tulane ▼ | 12 | 1.4 | -2.5 | 5–9 | 7.0 | 9-3 | 7.5 | -0.5 |
| 51 | Washington State | 11 | 7.2 | -0.9 | 5–9 | 7.0 | 8-3 | 5.5 | +1.5 |
| 52 | Miami (OH) | 12 | -4.5 | -8.9 | 5–9 | 7.0 | 8-4 | 7.5 | -0.5 |
| 53 | UConn | 12 | -3.0 | -7.6 | 5–9 | 6.9 | 7-5 | 5.5 | +1.4 |
| 54 | Florida International | 12 | -7.6 | -11.6 | 5–9 | 6.9 | 7-5 | 6.5 | +0.4 |
| 55 | Missouri | 12 | 11.8 | 7.2 | 5–9 | 6.8 | 7-5 | 6.5 | +0.3 |
| 56 | TCU | 12 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 5–9 | 6.8 | 7-5 | 7.5 | -0.7 |
| 57 | Iowa State | 12 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 5–9 | 6.7 | 7-5 | 4.5 | +2.2 |
| 58 | California | 12 | 2.6 | -0.5 | 5–9 | 6.7 | 7-5 | 6.5 | +0.2 |
| 59 | Old Dominion ▼ | 12 | -4.0 | -6.9 | 4–9 | 6.6 | 7-5 | 7.5 | -0.9 |
| 60 | Northwestern | 12 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 5–8 | 6.5 | 7-5 | 5.5 | +1.0 |
| 61 | Southern Miss ▲ | 12 | -3.0 | -5.1 | 4–8 | 6.4 | 6-6 | 3.5 | +2.9 |
| 62 | Duke | 12 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 4–8 | 6.4 | 5-7 | 5.5 | +0.9 |
| 63 | Ohio ▼ | 11 | -4.0 | -8.3 | 4–8 | 6.4 | 8-3 | 6.5 | -0.1 |
| 64 | Nebraska | 12 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 5–8 | 6.4 | 6-6 | 6.5 | -0.1 |
| 65 | Jacksonville State ▼ | 11 | -8.3 | -12.1 | 4–8 | 6.4 | 8-3 | 7.5 | -1.1 |
| 66 | South Carolina | 12 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 4–8 | 6.4 | 5-7 | 6.5 | -0.1 |
| 67 | Troy | 12 | -5.3 | -7.2 | 4–8 | 6.4 | 5-7 | 6.5 | -0.1 |
| 68 | Boise State ▼ | 11 | 3.4 | -0.6 | 4–8 | 6.3 | 8-3 | 8.5 | -2.2 |
| 69 | Maryland ▲ | 12 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 4–8 | 6.2 | 7-5 | 5.5 | +0.7 |
| 70 | Arizona State | 12 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 4–8 | 6.2 | 8-4 | 6.5 | -0.3 |
| 71 | Hawai'i ▼ | 10 | -2.1 | -8.2 | 4–8 | 6.2 | 9-1 | 7.5 | -1.3 |
| 72 | Buffalo | 12 | -9.6 | -10.5 | 4–8 | 6.2 | 6-6 | 5.5 | +0.7 |
| 73 | Arkansas State | 12 | -7.7 | -8.3 | 4–8 | 6.1 | 7-5 | 6.5 | -0.4 |
| 74 | Kansas | 12 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 4–8 | 6.1 | 6-6 | 5.5 | +0.6 |
| 75 | App State | 12 | -8.0 | -8.6 | 4–8 | 6.1 | 5-7 | 5.5 | +0.6 |
| 76 | New Mexico ▼ | 11 | -5.8 | -8.4 | 4–8 | 6.1 | 8-3 | 8.5 | -2.4 |
| 77 | Baylor | 12 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 4–8 | 6.1 | 6-6 | 5.5 | +0.6 |
| 78 | Tulsa | 12 | -6.8 | -7.2 | 4–8 | 6.0 | 7-5 | 5.5 | +0.5 |
| 79 | Air Force | 11 | -7.4 | -9.9 | 4–8 | 6.0 | 4-7 | 7.5 | -1.5 |
| 80 | UNLV ▼ | 11 | -3.0 | -5.4 | 4–8 | 6.0 | 6-5 | 7.5 | -1.5 |
| 81 | Army ▼ | 12 | -5.1 | -5.3 | 4–8 | 6.0 | 5-7 | 7.5 | -1.5 |
| 82 | Akron ▲ | 12 | -8.1 | -8.5 | 4–8 | 6.0 | 5-7 | 4.5 | +1.5 |
| 83 | Texas State | 11 | 1.1 | -0.8 | 4–8 | 6.0 | 7-4 | 6.5 | -0.5 |
| 84 | Rutgers ▲ | 12 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 4–8 | 5.9 | 4-8 | 4.5 | +1.4 |
| 85 | Florida Atlantic | 12 | -5.4 | -5.3 | 4–8 | 5.9 | 5-7 | 5.5 | +0.4 |
| 86 | Florida ▼ | 12 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 4–8 | 5.9 | 5-7 | 7.5 | -1.6 |
| 87 | Temple | 12 | -5.5 | -4.7 | 4–8 | 5.8 | 6-6 | 5.5 | +0.3 |
| 88 | Minnesota | 12 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 4–8 | 5.8 | 5-7 | 6.5 | -0.7 |
| 89 | Cincinnati | 12 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 4–8 | 5.8 | 5-7 | 5.5 | +0.3 |
| 90 | Navy ▼ | 12 | -5.8 | -5.1 | 4–8 | 5.8 | 5-7 | 7.5 | -1.7 |
| 91 | Wyoming | 11 | -8.6 | -9.7 | 4–8 | 5.8 | 6-5 | 5.5 | +0.3 |
| 92 | UCF | 12 | -0.7 | -0.3 | 4–8 | 5.8 | 4-8 | 5.5 | +0.3 |
| 93 | Wake Forest | 12 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 4–8 | 5.7 | 5-7 | 5.5 | +0.2 |
| 94 | South Alabama | 12 | -7.1 | -6.6 | 4–8 | 5.7 | 4-8 | 5.5 | +0.2 |
| 95 | Wisconsin | 12 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 4–8 | 5.7 | 6-6 | 6.5 | -0.8 |
| 96 | Delaware | 12 | -10.2 | -8.3 | 4–8 | 5.7 | 8-4 | 6.5 | -0.8 |
| 97 | Central Michigan | 11 | -6.9 | -6.8 | 4–8 | 5.6 | 6-5 | 6.5 | -0.9 |
| 98 | Eastern Michigan | 11 | -8.7 | -9.4 | 4–7 | 5.4 | 4-7 | 5.5 | -0.1 |
| 99 | Kennesaw State ▼ | 12 | -12.8 | -9.8 | 3–7 | 5.3 | 4-8 | 6.5 | -1.2 |
| 100 | Nevada ▲ | 11 | -10.0 | -9.1 | 3–7 | 5.3 | 5-6 | 4.5 | +0.8 |
| 101 | Northern Illinois ▲ | 11 | -9.4 | -7.4 | 3–7 | 5.1 | 6-5 | 3.5 | +1.6 |
| 102 | Middle Tennessee ▲ | 12 | -13.7 | -10.0 | 3–7 | 5.1 | 4-8 | 3.5 | +1.6 |
| 103 | Georgia Southern | 12 | -9.3 | -5.5 | 3–7 | 5.0 | 3-9 | 4.5 | +0.5 |
| 104 | Coastal Carolina | 12 | -12.2 | -8.2 | 3–7 | 5.0 | 3-9 | 4.5 | +0.5 |
| 105 | Fresno State ▼ | 10 | -1.1 | -1.2 | 3–7 | 5.0 | 4-6 | 7.5 | -2.5 |
| 106 | Mississippi State | 12 | 4.3 | 7.7 | 3–7 | 4.9 | 2-10 | 4.5 | +0.4 |
| 107 | Missouri State | 12 | -12.6 | -7.0 | 3–7 | 4.9 | 4-8 | 4.5 | +0.4 |
| 108 | West Virginia | 12 | -2.7 | 3.0 | 3–7 | 4.8 | 3-9 | 5.5 | -0.7 |
| 109 | Utah State | 11 | -2.9 | -0.2 | 3–7 | 4.8 | 4-7 | 5.5 | -0.7 |
| 110 | Virginia Tech ▼ | 12 | -3.4 | 1.9 | 3–7 | 4.7 | 3-9 | 6.5 | -1.8 |
| 111 | UCLA ▼ | 12 | -0.4 | 5.9 | 3–7 | 4.7 | 4-8 | 6.5 | -1.8 |
| 112 | New Mexico State | 12 | -14.6 | -8.9 | 3–7 | 4.7 | 2-10 | 4.5 | +0.2 |
| 113 | Arkansas ▲ | 12 | 4.7 | 10.1 | 3–6 | 4.5 | 2-10 | 3.5 | +1.0 |
| 114 | Oregon State | 11 | -5.4 | -0.7 | 3–6 | 4.5 | 4-7 | 4.5 | +0.0 |
| 115 | UAB ▲ | 12 | -11.5 | -4.8 | 3–6 | 4.4 | 3-9 | 3.5 | +0.9 |
| 116 | Bowling Green | 11 | -12.5 | -7.5 | 3–6 | 4.4 | 4-7 | 4.5 | -0.1 |
| 117 | Oklahoma State ▼ | 12 | -4.6 | 2.7 | 2–6 | 4.3 | 2-10 | 6.5 | -2.2 |
| 118 | North Carolina | 12 | -2.0 | 4.7 | 2–6 | 4.3 | 2-10 | 4.5 | -0.2 |
| 119 | Kentucky | 12 | 1.5 | 8.4 | 2–6 | 4.3 | 2-10 | 4.5 | -0.2 |
| 120 | Georgia State ▲ | 12 | -15.3 | -8.1 | 2–6 | 4.2 | 1-11 | 3.5 | +0.7 |
| 121 | Syracuse | 12 | -4.3 | 2.7 | 2–6 | 4.2 | 1-11 | 4.5 | -0.3 |
| 122 | Purdue ▲ | 12 | -1.5 | 6.5 | 2–6 | 4.2 | 1-11 | 3.5 | +0.7 |
| 123 | UTEP ▲ | 11 | -13.5 | -5.6 | 2–6 | 4.1 | 2-9 | 3.5 | +0.6 |
| 124 | San José State ▲ | 12 | -15.8 | -6.8 | 2–6 | 4.0 | 1-11 | 3.5 | +0.5 |
| 125 | Rice | 12 | -11.1 | -2.1 | 2–6 | 3.9 | 1-11 | 3.5 | +0.4 |
| 126 | Colorado | 12 | -4.2 | 4.1 | 2–6 | 3.9 | 1-11 | 4.5 | -0.6 |
| 127 | Kent State | 11 | -13.6 | -4.2 | 2–6 | 3.8 | 2-9 | 3.5 | +0.3 |
| 128 | Boston College ▲ | 12 | -6.0 | 3.9 | 2–6 | 3.8 | 3-9 | 3.5 | +0.3 |
| 129 | Sam Houston ▲ | 12 | -18.7 | -7.9 | 2–6 | 3.8 | 1-11 | 3.5 | +0.3 |
| 130 | Stanford | 12 | -6.2 | 4.2 | 2–5 | 3.6 | 1-11 | 3.5 | +0.1 |
| 131 | UL Monroe | 12 | -16.6 | -6.8 | 2–5 | 3.6 | 1-11 | 3.5 | +0.1 |
| 132 | Michigan State | 12 | -3.0 | 8.4 | 2–5 | 3.5 | 1-11 | 4.5 | -1.0 |
| 133 | Colorado State | 11 | -11.2 | -1.4 | 2–5 | 3.4 | 2-9 | 4.5 | -1.1 |
| 134 | Ball State | 11 | -18.4 | -6.7 | 2–5 | 3.4 | 2-9 | 3.5 | -0.1 |
| 135 | Charlotte ▲ | 12 | -17.6 | -3.7 | 1–5 | 3.0 | 1-11 | 2.5 | +0.5 |
| 136 | Massachusetts ▲ | 11 | -29.7 | -10.4 | 1–4 | 2.1 | 2-9 | 2.5 | -0.4 |