🏈 Ken's CFB Model

2026 projected win totals — all teams

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#	Team	Games	Proj rating	SOS	10th–90th	Mean wins	Vegas	Edge
1	Texas Tech	12	20.7	-4.8	9–12	10.5	10.5	+0.0
2	Indiana	12	24.3	3.8	8–11	9.9	10.5	-0.6
3	Notre Dame	12	18.4	-0.7	8–11	9.8	11.5	-1.7
4	Miami	12	15.6	-1.5	7–11	9.3	10.5	-1.2
5	Oregon	12	19.5	2.4	7–11	9.2	10.5	-1.3
6	Utah	12	16.7	0.5	7–11	9.2	8.5	+0.7
7	James Madison	12	9.3	-6.8	7–11	9.1	—	—
8	Ohio State	12	22.6	6.7	7–11	9.0	9.5	-0.5
9	South Florida	12	8.8	-5.4	7–11	8.8	8.5	+0.3
10	Penn State	12	13.6	1.9	7–10	8.6	8.5	+0.1
11	North Texas	12	10.4	-3.8	7–10	8.5	—	—
12	Georgia	12	18.1	5.5	7–10	8.5	9.5	-1.0
13	Ole Miss	12	18.1	4.3	7–10	8.5	7.5	+1.0
14	SMU	12	10.1	-2.3	7–10	8.5	8.5	+0.0
15	Virginia	12	8.4	-3.3	7–10	8.4	—	—
16	Iowa	12	14.8	1.9	7–10	8.4	7.5	+0.9
17	Texas A&M	12	15.6	3.4	6–10	8.3	8.5	-0.2
18	Vanderbilt	12	15.3	3.6	6–10	8.3	5.5	+2.8
19	Toledo	11	4.6	-9.7	6–10	8.2	7.5	+0.7
20	Old Dominion	12	4.5	-6.1	6–10	8.1	—	—
21	UConn	12	3.9	-6.7	6–10	8.1	5.5	+2.6
22	East Carolina	12	6.1	-5.1	6–10	8.1	7.5	+0.6
23	BYU	12	12.0	2.1	6–10	8.0	8.5	-0.5
24	Pittsburgh	12	6.4	-2.3	6–10	7.8	7.5	+0.3
25	Louisville	12	9.4	0.2	6–10	7.8	7.5	+0.3
26	Illinois	12	9.7	1.3	6–10	7.8	7.5	+0.3
27	Washington	12	13.9	4.5	6–10	7.8	7.5	+0.3
28	Memphis	12	5.8	-3.5	6–10	7.8	7.5	+0.3
29	Clemson	12	7.2	-1.4	6–10	7.7	7.5	+0.2
30	Navy	12	4.7	-3.7	6–10	7.6	7.5	+0.1
31	USC	12	12.7	5.8	6–9	7.5	8.5	-1.0
32	Houston	12	5.6	-2.1	6–9	7.5	8.5	-1.0
33	Western Kentucky	12	1.3	-6.2	6–9	7.5	6.5	+1.0
34	Oklahoma	12	13.8	7.0	5–9	7.5	7.5	+0.0
35	Georgia Tech	12	7.0	0.2	5–9	7.4	6.5	+0.9
36	Tennessee	12	11.3	4.4	5–9	7.3	7.5	-0.2
37	Iowa State	12	7.5	0.4	5–9	7.3	5.5	+1.8
38	Tulane	12	4.8	-1.2	5–9	7.3	7.5	-0.2
39	Western Michigan	12	-1.0	-7.1	5–9	7.3	7.5	-0.2
40	Arizona	12	9.1	2.5	5–9	7.2	7.5	-0.3
41	Missouri	12	10.9	4.8	5–9	7.2	6.5	+0.7
42	San Diego State	11	5.1	-3.7	5–9	7.1	6.5	+0.6
43	Kennesaw State	12	-4.0	-9.3	5–9	7.1	6.5	+0.6
44	Miami (OH)	12	-2.5	-7.9	5–9	7.1	7.5	-0.4
45	Kansas State	12	5.3	-0.2	5–9	7.1	8.5	-1.4
46	UTSA	12	2.9	-3.0	5–9	7.1	7.5	-0.4
47	Alabama	12	11.2	5.5	5–9	7.0	8.5	-1.5
48	NC State	12	3.7	-1.4	5–9	7.0	7.5	-0.5
49	TCU	12	6.3	1.7	5–9	7.0	6.5	+0.5
50	Louisiana Tech	12	-0.9	-6.0	5–9	7.0	5.5	+1.5
51	Marshall	12	-3.3	-7.8	5–9	6.9	7.5	-0.6
52	Buffalo	12	-5.5	-10.5	5–9	6.9	5.5	+1.4
53	New Mexico	11	0.8	-6.8	5–9	6.8	7.5	-0.7
54	UNLV	11	3.3	-3.5	5–9	6.8	7.5	-0.7
55	Texas	12	12.2	9.5	5–9	6.8	9.5	-2.7
56	Troy	12	-3.5	-7.2	5–9	6.7	6.5	+0.2
57	Liberty	12	-6.6	-10.1	5–9	6.7	—	—
58	Auburn	12	8.8	4.7	5–9	6.7	6.5	+0.2
59	Michigan	12	9.4	7.3	5–9	6.7	8.5	-1.8
60	Ohio	11	-2.9	-8.9	5–9	6.6	6.5	+0.1
61	Army	12	0.7	-2.7	5–9	6.6	7.5	-0.9
62	Duke	12	5.0	0.8	5–9	6.6	5.5	+1.1
63	Wake Forest	12	4.4	0.2	5–9	6.6	5.5	+1.1
64	Kansas	12	3.2	-0.4	5–9	6.6	5.5	+1.1
65	Louisiana	12	-7.5	-10.1	5–9	6.6	7.5	-0.9
66	Florida State	12	5.5	2.1	5–9	6.6	6.5	+0.1
67	Jacksonville State	11	-4.9	-10.1	5–8	6.5	7.5	-1.0
68	LSU	12	7.8	5.1	4–8	6.4	8.5	-2.1
69	Hawai'i	10	1.4	-6.8	5–8	6.4	7.5	-1.1
70	Air Force	11	-2.3	-6.6	4–8	6.3	6.5	-0.2
71	Boise State	11	2.4	-1.9	4–8	6.3	7.5	-1.2
72	Florida International	12	-7.8	-9.2	4–8	6.2	6.5	-0.3
73	Texas State	11	1.8	-1.8	4–8	6.2	5.5	+0.7
74	Arizona State	12	3.0	1.6	4–8	6.2	6.5	-0.3
75	Arkansas State	12	-6.5	-7.9	4–8	6.2	5.5	+0.7
76	Washington State	11	2.9	-1.6	4–8	6.1	4.5	+1.6
77	Cincinnati	12	3.5	2.2	4–8	6.1	5.5	+0.6
78	UCF	12	-0.8	-1.8	4–8	6.1	5.5	+0.6
79	Rutgers	12	0.8	-0.0	4–8	6.0	4.5	+1.5
80	South Carolina	12	4.5	3.6	4–8	6.0	6.5	-0.5
81	Maryland	12	0.5	1.3	4–8	5.9	4.5	+1.4
82	California	12	-2.3	-1.7	4–8	5.9	6.5	-0.6
83	Northwestern	12	4.4	4.2	4–8	5.8	5.5	+0.3
84	Nebraska	12	4.7	5.0	4–8	5.8	6.5	-0.7
85	App State	12	-8.4	-7.7	4–8	5.8	5.5	+0.3
86	Minnesota	12	1.2	2.3	4–8	5.8	5.5	+0.3
87	Tulsa	12	-7.4	-6.1	4–8	5.6	5.5	+0.1
88	Temple	12	-3.7	-2.1	4–8	5.6	5.5	+0.1
89	Missouri State	12	-7.9	-5.9	4–8	5.6	4.5	+1.1
90	Baylor	12	1.1	2.3	4–8	5.6	6.5	-0.9
91	Delaware	12	-8.1	-6.0	4–8	5.6	5.5	+0.1
92	Southern Miss	12	-5.2	-3.6	4–8	5.5	4.5	+1.0
93	Fresno State	10	1.4	-2.2	4–7	5.5	6.5	-1.0
94	Central Michigan	11	-6.5	-6.7	4–7	5.5	6.5	-1.0
95	Mississippi State	12	3.2	4.7	4–7	5.5	4.5	+1.0
96	Georgia Southern	12	-6.9	-4.6	3–7	5.4	4.5	+0.9
97	Akron	12	-10.3	-7.8	3–7	5.4	4.5	+0.9
98	South Alabama	12	-9.4	-6.6	3–7	5.3	5.5	-0.2
99	Wyoming	11	-8.4	-7.1	3–7	5.2	5.5	-0.3
100	Arkansas	12	3.9	6.9	3–7	5.2	4.5	+0.7
101	Middle Tennessee	12	-11.9	-8.6	3–7	5.2	3.5	+1.7
102	Wisconsin	12	-3.2	0.6	3–7	5.2	6.5	-1.3
103	Florida Atlantic	12	-6.4	-3.1	3–7	5.2	5.5	-0.3
104	Utah State	11	-2.2	-1.3	3–7	5.1	4.5	+0.6
105	Coastal Carolina	12	-11.2	-7.3	3–7	5.1	4.5	+0.6
106	Kentucky	12	1.4	5.2	3–7	5.1	4.5	+0.6
107	New Mexico State	12	-11.5	-7.5	3–7	5.1	4.5	+0.6
108	Florida	12	2.7	5.9	3–7	5.1	7.5	-2.4
109	Eastern Michigan	11	-10.9	-9.6	3–7	5.0	5.5	-0.5
110	Nevada	11	-9.9	-7.4	3–7	4.9	4.5	+0.4
111	San José State	12	-10.6	-5.7	3–7	4.9	5.5	-0.6
112	Bowling Green	11	-9.3	-6.7	3–7	4.8	4.5	+0.3
113	West Virginia	12	-5.0	2.3	3–6	4.6	5.5	-0.9
114	Michigan State	12	-2.5	5.4	2–6	4.4	4.5	-0.1
115	Northern Illinois	11	-12.4	-5.9	2–6	4.3	3.5	+0.8
116	Boston College	12	-6.3	2.0	2–6	4.2	3.5	+0.7
117	UTEP	11	-13.0	-5.6	2–6	4.2	3.5	+0.7
118	UCLA	12	-6.4	3.0	2–6	4.2	6.5	-2.3
119	Purdue	12	-4.5	5.0	2–6	4.2	3.5	+0.7
120	Colorado	12	-6.1	2.0	2–6	4.1	4.5	-0.4
121	Virginia Tech	12	-7.5	0.9	2–6	4.1	—	—
122	UAB	12	-11.7	-2.5	2–6	4.1	3.5	+0.6
123	North Carolina	12	-4.9	3.6	2–6	4.1	4.5	-0.4
124	UL Monroe	12	-16.1	-7.6	2–6	4.1	3.5	+0.6
125	Rice	12	-11.0	-0.4	2–6	3.8	3.5	+0.3
126	Kent State	11	-14.4	-4.5	2–6	3.8	3.5	+0.3
127	Colorado State	11	-11.6	-2.3	2–6	3.7	3.5	+0.2
128	Oregon State	11	-11.8	-1.6	2–5	3.6	3.5	+0.1
129	Georgia State	12	-18.3	-6.5	2–5	3.6	3.5	+0.1
130	Ball State	11	-17.1	-6.6	2–5	3.5	3.5	+0.0
131	Stanford	12	-8.7	2.8	2–5	3.5	3.5	+0.0
132	Syracuse	12	-9.7	1.9	2–5	3.5	4.5	-1.0
133	Oklahoma State	12	-11.2	1.2	2–5	3.5	5.5	-2.0
134	Sam Houston	12	-20.7	-6.2	1–5	3.2	3.5	-0.3
135	Massachusetts	11	-27.3	-9.9	1–4	2.7	—	—
136	Charlotte	12	-19.9	-1.7	1–4	2.6	2.5	+0.1