🏈 Ken's CFB Model

Dashboard Weekly Picks My Bets Win Totals Surprises

2026 surprise candidates — breakouts and collapses

This page asks: where will the market be wrong? Tested against eight years of archived preseason Vegas win totals (780 team-seasons, 2018–2025), three things predict a team finishing above or below its number: our model's disagreement with Vegas (the biggest one — when we differ from the line, the market misses in our direction far more often than not), last year's record (the market over-anchors on it: teams coming off big years fall short, teams coming off bad years beat the number), and a first-year head coach (about half a win below the number on average). What predicted volatility (big misses either way): a coin-flip-heavy schedule and a coaching change in year one or two. What did not help: last year's luck metrics (close-game record, points-vs-record) and young blue-chip talent — both already reflected in the line or our model.

Honesty box: walk-forward out of sample (each season predicted only from earlier ones), the Lean vs Vegas direction was right 63–69% of the time when its size was 0.75+ wins — and positive in every season tested. That beats the ~55% needed at typical win-total juice, but it's ~35 teams a year and one archived book's lines. Most of what happens in a season is still noise. For scale: preseason expectations land within ±2 wins only 63% of the time; about 23 teams a year miss by 3+ and 9 miss by 4+ — the 3+ miss odds column is each team's estimated chance of being one of them (league average 17%). "Adjusted" = our model's wins plus the signal adjustment; "vs Vegas" is the gap that matters.

Breakout candidates — lean ≥0.75 wins OVER the number (the validated cut) (18)

TeamVegas Model Expected finish Lean vs Vegas Volatility 3+ miss odds Why
Middle Tennessee 3.5 5.1 5.0 +1.6 1.8 17% coming off 3-9; model +1.6 vs Vegas; coin-flip schedule
Georgia State 3.5 4.2 4.9 +1.4 1.7 15% coming off 1-11
Southern Miss 3.5 6.4 4.8 +1.3 2.1 21% new head coach; model +2.9 vs Vegas; coin-flip schedule
Charlotte 2.5 3.0 3.8 +1.3 1.6 16% 2nd-year coach; coming off 1-11
Purdue 3.5 4.2 4.7 +1.2 1.8 19% 2nd-year coach; coming off 2-10
Florida State 5.5 7.0 6.7 +1.2 1.7 14% model +1.5 vs Vegas; young blue-chip roster
UTEP 3.5 4.1 4.6 +1.1 1.5 14% coming off 2-10; roster rebuilt (0% returning)
Akron 4.5 6.0 5.6 +1.1 1.8 16% coin-flip schedule
Northern Illinois 3.5 5.1 4.6 +1.1 1.9 17% new head coach; coming off 3-9; model +1.6 vs Vegas
Rutgers 4.5 5.9 5.6 +1.1 1.6 13%
Nevada 4.5 5.3 5.5 +1.0 1.7 15% coming off 3-9
UAB 3.5 4.4 4.5 +1.0 1.8 19% 2nd-year coach
Massachusetts 2.5 2.1 3.5 +1.0 1.2 12% 2nd-year coach; coming off 0-12; roster rebuilt (0% returning)
Boston College 3.5 3.8 4.5 +1.0 1.4 13% coming off 2-10; roster rebuilt (16% returning)
Sam Houston 3.5 3.8 4.5 +0.9 1.9 21% 2nd-year coach; coming off 2-10
Arkansas 3.5 4.5 4.4 +0.9 1.8 19% new head coach; coming off 2-10; roster rebuilt (14% returning)
San José State 3.5 4.0 4.4 +0.9 1.7 17% coming off 3-9; roster rebuilt (4% returning)
Maryland 5.5 6.2 6.3 +0.8 1.7 14%

Collapse candidates — Vegas ≥7.5 and lean ≥0.75 UNDER (17)

TeamVegas Model Expected finish Lean vs Vegas Volatility 3+ miss odds Why
Fresno State 7.5 5.0 5.8 -1.7 1.8 18% 2nd-year coach; model -2.5 vs Vegas
New Mexico 8.5 6.1 7.0 -1.5 1.9 21% 2nd-year coach; model -2.4 vs Vegas
Navy 7.5 5.8 6.0 -1.5 1.8 19% coming off 11-2; roster rebuilt (14% returning); model -1.7 vs Vegas; coin-flip schedule
Michigan 8.5 7.2 7.2 -1.3 1.9 17% new head coach
Boise State 8.5 6.3 7.2 -1.3 1.6 12% model -2.2 vs Vegas
Tulane 7.5 7.0 6.3 -1.2 2.2 27% new head coach; coming off 11-3; roster rebuilt (21% returning); coin-flip schedule
UNLV 7.5 6.0 6.4 -1.1 2.1 29% 2nd-year coach; roster rebuilt (15% returning); model -1.5 vs Vegas; coin-flip schedule
Indiana 10.5 9.2 9.4 -1.1 1.4 12% coming off 16-0; roster rebuilt (17% returning)
Texas 9.5 7.8 8.4 -1.1 1.7 15% coming off 10-3; model -1.7 vs Vegas
James Madison 8.5 8.3 7.5 -1.0 2.0 22% new head coach; coming off 12-2; roster rebuilt (8% returning)
Hawai'i 7.5 6.2 6.5 -1.0 1.6 13%
Old Dominion 7.5 6.6 6.6 -0.9 1.9 22% coming off 10-3; roster rebuilt (9% returning); coin-flip schedule
Florida 7.5 5.9 6.6 -0.9 2.1 21% new head coach; model -1.6 vs Vegas; coin-flip schedule
Alabama 8.5 7.3 7.6 -0.9 1.8 20% roster rebuilt (26% returning); coin-flip schedule; young blue-chip roster
Kansas State 8.5 7.3 7.6 -0.9 2.2 22% new head coach; coin-flip schedule
Army 7.5 6.0 6.7 -0.8 1.9 19% model -1.5 vs Vegas; coin-flip schedule
Jacksonville State 7.5 6.4 6.7 -0.8 2.0 24% 2nd-year coach; coin-flip schedule

Wildest ranges — biggest expected miss, either direction

TeamVegas Model Expected finish Lean vs Vegas Volatility 3+ miss odds Why
Tulane 7.5 7.0 6.3 -1.2 2.2 27% new head coach; coming off 11-3; roster rebuilt (21% returning); coin-flip schedule
Coastal Carolina 4.5 5.0 4.5 -0.0 2.2 26% new head coach; roster rebuilt (15% returning); coin-flip schedule
Kansas State 8.5 7.3 7.6 -0.9 2.2 22% new head coach; coin-flip schedule
UConn 5.5 6.9 5.6 +0.1 2.1 25% new head coach; roster rebuilt (2% returning); coin-flip schedule
California 6.5 6.7 6.2 -0.3 2.1 22% new head coach; coin-flip schedule
Kennesaw State 6.5 5.3 5.5 -1.0 2.1 30% 2nd-year coach; roster rebuilt (6% returning); coin-flip schedule
Southern Miss 3.5 6.4 4.8 +1.3 2.1 21% new head coach; model +2.9 vs Vegas; coin-flip schedule
Florida Atlantic 5.5 5.9 6.1 +0.6 2.1 26% 2nd-year coach; coin-flip schedule
UCF 5.5 5.8 5.9 +0.4 2.1 30% 2nd-year coach; roster rebuilt (25% returning); coin-flip schedule
Florida International 6.5 6.9 6.8 +0.3 2.1 26% 2nd-year coach; coin-flip schedule

All teams

Click a column header to sort.

TeamVegas Model Expected finish Lean vs Vegas Volatility 3+ miss odds Why
Middle Tennessee 3.5 5.1 5.0 +1.6 1.8 17% coming off 3-9; model +1.6 vs Vegas; coin-flip schedule
Georgia State 3.5 4.2 4.9 +1.4 1.7 15% coming off 1-11
Southern Miss 3.5 6.4 4.8 +1.3 2.1 21% new head coach; model +2.9 vs Vegas; coin-flip schedule
Charlotte 2.5 3.0 3.8 +1.3 1.6 16% 2nd-year coach; coming off 1-11
Purdue 3.5 4.2 4.7 +1.2 1.8 19% 2nd-year coach; coming off 2-10
Florida State 5.5 7.0 6.7 +1.2 1.7 14% model +1.5 vs Vegas; young blue-chip roster
UTEP 3.5 4.1 4.6 +1.1 1.5 14% coming off 2-10; roster rebuilt (0% returning)
Akron 4.5 6.0 5.6 +1.1 1.8 16% coin-flip schedule
Northern Illinois 3.5 5.1 4.6 +1.1 1.9 17% new head coach; coming off 3-9; model +1.6 vs Vegas
Rutgers 4.5 5.9 5.6 +1.1 1.6 13%
Nevada 4.5 5.3 5.5 +1.0 1.7 15% coming off 3-9
UAB 3.5 4.4 4.5 +1.0 1.8 19% 2nd-year coach
Massachusetts 2.5 2.1 3.5 +1.0 1.2 12% 2nd-year coach; coming off 0-12; roster rebuilt (0% returning)
Boston College 3.5 3.8 4.5 +1.0 1.4 13% coming off 2-10; roster rebuilt (16% returning)
Sam Houston 3.5 3.8 4.5 +0.9 1.9 21% 2nd-year coach; coming off 2-10
Arkansas 3.5 4.5 4.4 +0.9 1.8 19% new head coach; coming off 2-10; roster rebuilt (14% returning)
San José State 3.5 4.0 4.4 +0.9 1.7 17% coming off 3-9; roster rebuilt (4% returning)
Maryland 5.5 6.2 6.3 +0.8 1.7 14%
Louisiana Tech 5.5 7.0 6.2 +0.7 1.8 16% coin-flip schedule
Tulsa 5.5 6.0 6.2 +0.7 2.1 25% 2nd-year coach; coin-flip schedule
App State 5.5 6.1 6.2 +0.7 2.0 24% 2nd-year coach; coin-flip schedule
UL Monroe 3.5 3.6 4.2 +0.7 1.6 13% coming off 3-9
Florida Atlantic 5.5 5.9 6.1 +0.6 2.1 26% 2nd-year coach; coin-flip schedule
Buffalo 5.5 6.2 6.1 +0.6 1.8 23% 2nd-year coach; roster rebuilt (0% returning)
Rice 3.5 3.9 4.1 +0.6 1.9 21% 2nd-year coach
Kansas 5.5 6.1 6.1 +0.6 1.7 18% roster rebuilt (18% returning)
Iowa State 4.5 6.7 5.1 +0.6 2.0 22% new head coach; roster rebuilt (2% returning); model +2.2 vs Vegas
Northwestern 5.5 6.5 6.1 +0.6 1.5 11%
Mississippi State 4.5 4.9 5.1 +0.6 1.5 12%
Baylor 5.5 6.0 6.1 +0.6 1.7 15%
Wyoming 5.5 5.8 6.1 +0.6 1.8 20% roster rebuilt (23% returning); coin-flip schedule
South Alabama 5.5 5.7 6.0 +0.6 1.8 17% coin-flip schedule
Vanderbilt 5.5 7.2 6.0 +0.5 1.7 15% coming off 10-3; model +1.7 vs Vegas
New Mexico State 4.5 4.7 5.0 +0.5 1.8 20% roster rebuilt (24% returning); coin-flip schedule
Kent State 3.5 3.8 4.0 +0.5 1.6 16% 2nd-year coach
Temple 5.5 5.8 5.9 +0.4 1.9 22% 2nd-year coach
Marshall 7.5 7.6 7.9 +0.4 1.9 21% 2nd-year coach
UCF 5.5 5.8 5.9 +0.4 2.1 30% 2nd-year coach; roster rebuilt (25% returning); coin-flip schedule
Washington State 5.5 7.0 5.9 +0.4 1.9 17% new head coach
Syracuse 4.5 4.2 4.9 +0.4 1.6 13% coming off 3-9
Ball State 3.5 3.4 3.9 +0.4 1.6 17% 2nd-year coach; roster rebuilt (6% returning)
South Carolina 6.5 6.4 6.9 +0.4 1.7 15%
Bowling Green 4.5 4.4 4.8 +0.3 1.6 17% 2nd-year coach; roster rebuilt (0% returning)
Eastern Michigan 5.5 5.4 5.8 +0.3 1.5 12%
Duke 5.5 6.4 5.8 +0.3 1.7 17% roster rebuilt (17% returning)
North Texas 5.5 7.9 5.8 +0.3 1.8 19% new head coach; coming off 12-2; roster rebuilt (2% returning); model +2.4 vs Vegas
Georgia Southern 4.5 5.0 4.8 +0.3 1.8 19% roster rebuilt (6% returning); coin-flip schedule
Oregon State 4.5 4.5 4.8 +0.3 1.8 16% new head coach; coming off 2-10
Florida International 6.5 6.9 6.8 +0.3 2.1 26% 2nd-year coach; coin-flip schedule
North Carolina 4.5 4.3 4.8 +0.3 1.8 23% 2nd-year coach; roster rebuilt (28% returning)
Auburn 6.5 7.2 6.8 +0.2 2.0 22% new head coach; roster rebuilt (14% returning); young blue-chip roster
Colorado 4.5 3.9 4.7 +0.2 1.5 14% coming off 3-9; roster rebuilt (14% returning)
Cincinnati 5.5 5.8 5.7 +0.2 1.6 16% roster rebuilt (8% returning)
Georgia Tech 6.5 7.2 6.7 +0.2 1.7 17% roster rebuilt (13% returning)
Texas Tech 10.5 10.9 10.7 +0.2 0.6 4% coming off 12-2
Clemson 7.5 7.6 7.6 +0.1 1.7 15% young blue-chip roster
UConn 5.5 6.9 5.6 +0.1 2.1 25% new head coach; roster rebuilt (2% returning); coin-flip schedule
Iowa 7.5 8.0 7.6 +0.1 1.6 13%
Missouri 6.5 6.8 6.6 +0.1 1.7 15%
Stanford 3.5 3.6 3.5 +0.1 1.7 17% new head coach; roster rebuilt (21% returning)
Louisiana 7.5 7.1 7.5 +0.0 1.7 15%
Toledo 7.5 8.4 7.5 +0.0 1.6 12% new head coach
West Virginia 5.5 4.8 5.5 -0.0 1.8 22% 2nd-year coach; roster rebuilt (14% returning)
Coastal Carolina 4.5 5.0 4.5 -0.0 2.2 26% new head coach; roster rebuilt (15% returning); coin-flip schedule
Nebraska 6.5 6.4 6.5 -0.0 1.5 12%
East Carolina 7.5 7.8 7.5 -0.0 1.9 25% 2nd-year coach; roster rebuilt (14% returning)
NC State 7.5 7.5 7.4 -0.1 1.7 15%
Wisconsin 6.5 5.7 6.4 -0.1 1.7 14%
UTSA 7.5 7.2 7.4 -0.1 1.7 15%
Western Kentucky 7.5 7.7 7.4 -0.1 1.4 10%
Virginia 7.5 8.0 7.4 -0.1 1.7 17% coming off 11-3; roster rebuilt (10% returning)
Troy 6.5 6.4 6.4 -0.1 1.8 16% coin-flip schedule
Tennessee 7.5 7.3 7.3 -0.1 1.7 15% young blue-chip roster
Miami (OH) 7.5 7.0 7.3 -0.1 1.7 18% roster rebuilt (14% returning)
Wake Forest 5.5 5.7 5.3 -0.2 2.0 27% 2nd-year coach; roster rebuilt (14% returning)
Western Michigan 7.5 7.6 7.3 -0.2 1.6 14%
Arkansas State 6.5 6.1 6.3 -0.2 1.7 15%
Penn State 8.5 8.6 8.3 -0.2 1.8 19% new head coach; roster rebuilt (8% returning); young blue-chip roster
Washington 7.5 7.5 7.3 -0.2 1.7 14%
Miami 10.5 10.1 10.3 -0.2 0.9 6% coming off 13-3; young blue-chip roster
Pittsburgh 7.5 7.2 7.3 -0.2 1.7 15%
Missouri State 4.5 4.9 4.3 -0.2 1.9 18% new head coach
Utah 8.5 9.6 8.3 -0.2 1.6 13% new head coach; coming off 11-2
San Diego State 7.5 7.4 7.3 -0.2 1.6 13%
Utah State 5.5 4.8 5.2 -0.3 1.8 18% 2nd-year coach
Liberty 8.5 7.0 8.2 -0.3 1.8 17% model -1.5 vs Vegas; coin-flip schedule
Memphis 7.5 7.9 7.2 -0.3 2.0 23% new head coach; roster rebuilt (6% returning)
Illinois 7.5 7.4 7.2 -0.3 1.6 15% roster rebuilt (21% returning)
Texas State 6.5 6.0 6.2 -0.3 1.6 13%
Texas A&M 8.5 8.7 8.2 -0.3 1.5 12% coming off 11-2
Arizona State 6.5 6.2 6.2 -0.3 1.6 16% roster rebuilt (16% returning)
California 6.5 6.7 6.2 -0.3 2.1 22% new head coach; coin-flip schedule
Kentucky 4.5 4.2 4.2 -0.3 1.8 18% new head coach; roster rebuilt (19% returning)
Ohio State 9.5 9.4 9.2 -0.3 1.3 10% coming off 12-2
Louisville 8.5 8.1 8.2 -0.3 1.7 15%
Air Force 7.5 6.0 7.1 -0.4 1.8 16% coin-flip schedule
SMU 8.5 8.1 8.1 -0.4 1.5 12%
Colorado State 4.5 3.4 4.1 -0.4 1.7 13% new head coach; coming off 2-10
Georgia 9.5 9.3 9.1 -0.4 1.4 11% coming off 12-2
USC 8.5 7.9 8.1 -0.4 1.6 13%
Delaware 6.5 5.7 6.0 -0.5 2.0 24% 2nd-year coach; coin-flip schedule
Oregon 10.5 9.8 10.0 -0.5 1.1 7% coming off 13-2
Arizona 7.5 7.0 7.0 -0.5 1.7 15%
Central Michigan 6.5 5.6 6.0 -0.5 1.9 22% 2nd-year coach
Minnesota 6.5 5.8 6.0 -0.5 1.7 15%
TCU 7.5 6.8 6.9 -0.6 1.7 18% roster rebuilt (22% returning)
Oklahoma 8.5 7.9 7.9 -0.6 1.6 14% coming off 10-3
South Florida 8.5 8.4 7.9 -0.6 2.0 22% new head coach; roster rebuilt (13% returning)
Notre Dame 11.5 10.1 10.9 -0.6 1.0 7% coming off 10-2
Michigan State 4.5 3.5 3.9 -0.6 1.9 21% new head coach; roster rebuilt (21% returning)
BYU 8.5 8.1 7.9 -0.6 1.6 14% coming off 12-2
Ole Miss 7.5 8.0 6.8 -0.7 1.9 18% new head coach; coming off 13-2
LSU 8.5 7.7 7.8 -0.7 2.0 23% new head coach; roster rebuilt (21% returning); young blue-chip roster
Houston 8.5 7.7 7.8 -0.7 1.8 20% 2nd-year coach; coming off 10-3
Jacksonville State 7.5 6.4 6.7 -0.8 2.0 24% 2nd-year coach; coin-flip schedule
Ohio 6.5 6.4 5.7 -0.8 1.9 18% new head coach
Army 7.5 6.0 6.7 -0.8 1.9 19% model -1.5 vs Vegas; coin-flip schedule
Oklahoma State 6.5 4.3 5.7 -0.8 1.9 19% new head coach; coming off 1-11; roster rebuilt (0% returning); model -2.2 vs Vegas
Kansas State 8.5 7.3 7.6 -0.9 2.2 22% new head coach; coin-flip schedule
Alabama 8.5 7.3 7.6 -0.9 1.8 20% roster rebuilt (26% returning); coin-flip schedule; young blue-chip roster
Old Dominion 7.5 6.6 6.6 -0.9 1.9 22% coming off 10-3; roster rebuilt (9% returning); coin-flip schedule
Florida 7.5 5.9 6.6 -0.9 2.1 21% new head coach; model -1.6 vs Vegas; coin-flip schedule
Virginia Tech 6.5 4.7 5.6 -0.9 1.9 17% new head coach; coming off 3-9; model -1.8 vs Vegas
UCLA 6.5 4.7 5.6 -0.9 2.0 20% new head coach; coming off 3-9; model -1.8 vs Vegas; coin-flip schedule
Hawai'i 7.5 6.2 6.5 -1.0 1.6 13%
Kennesaw State 6.5 5.3 5.5 -1.0 2.1 30% 2nd-year coach; roster rebuilt (6% returning); coin-flip schedule
James Madison 8.5 8.3 7.5 -1.0 2.0 22% new head coach; coming off 12-2; roster rebuilt (8% returning)
Indiana 10.5 9.2 9.4 -1.1 1.4 12% coming off 16-0; roster rebuilt (17% returning)
Texas 9.5 7.8 8.4 -1.1 1.7 15% coming off 10-3; model -1.7 vs Vegas
UNLV 7.5 6.0 6.4 -1.1 2.1 29% 2nd-year coach; roster rebuilt (15% returning); model -1.5 vs Vegas; coin-flip schedule
Tulane 7.5 7.0 6.3 -1.2 2.2 27% new head coach; coming off 11-3; roster rebuilt (21% returning); coin-flip schedule
Boise State 8.5 6.3 7.2 -1.3 1.6 12% model -2.2 vs Vegas
Michigan 8.5 7.2 7.2 -1.3 1.9 17% new head coach
Navy 7.5 5.8 6.0 -1.5 1.8 19% coming off 11-2; roster rebuilt (14% returning); model -1.7 vs Vegas; coin-flip schedule
New Mexico 8.5 6.1 7.0 -1.5 1.9 21% 2nd-year coach; model -2.4 vs Vegas
Fresno State 7.5 5.0 5.8 -1.7 1.8 18% 2nd-year coach; model -2.5 vs Vegas