Marshall — 2026 schedule & results record 4-3 · model's picks 6-1 so far
Proj rating -2.3 · SOS -9.2 · Mean wins 7.6 · Picked 9-3 · Vegas 7.5
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Line / ATS | Model | Win prob | Pick | My bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sat 09/05 | Penn State | away | L 0–45 | +23.25 ✗ | -19.3 | 12% | L ✓ | |
| 2 | Sat 09/12 | Middle Tennessee | home | W 28–26 | -12.25 ✗ | +13.8 | 79% | W ✓ | |
| 3 | Sat 09/19 | Missouri State | away | W 30–24 | -4 ✓ | +7.2 | 67% | W ✓ | |
| 4 | Sat 09/26 | Gardner-Webb | home | W 36–35 | -25 ✗ | +28.4 | 96% | W ✓ | |
| 5 | Sat 10/03 | James Madison | away | L 17–45 | +16.25 ✗ | -7.2 | 33% | L ✓ |
James Madison -18.5 · WIN +27 |
| 6 | Sat 10/10 | Coastal Carolina | home | L 21–27 | -4.5 ✗ | +12.3 | 76% | W ✗ | |
| 8 | Tue 10/20 | South Alabama | home | W 20–13 | +1.5 ✓ | +7.4 | 67% | W ✓ |
Marshall +3 · WIN +19 |
| 9 | Sat 10/31 | Old Dominion | away | — | -2.5 | -1.2 | 48% | L | |
| 10 | Sat 11/07 | Georgia Southern | away | — | — | +4.0 | 59% | W | |
| 11 | Sat 11/14 | App State | home | — | — | +8.3 | 68% | W | |
| 12 | Sat 11/21 | Georgia State | home | — | — | +15.4 | 82% | W | |
| 13 | Sat 11/28 | UL Monroe | away | — | — | +11.1 | 74% | W |
Picked counts every game the model favors as a win. Mean wins is the average over 10,000 simulated seasons — a team favored 60/40 in five games wins about three of them, not five, which is why Picked runs higher than Mean wins for good teams (and lower for bad ones). Compare Mean wins to Vegas; use this page to see where the wins come from.