2026 — my bets
Balance: $828.47 (started $786.67 edit; $120 in play)
$+116.79 91-74-4 (+2.34u at $50/u) · 172 bets, $4806 staked, 3 pending
Closing line value: +0.08 pts a bet · beat the close on 67 of 169 (39 even)
Week 9 games & lines export CSVThis week — Week 9
No bets yet this week — open the week 9 sheet.
By week
| Week | Bets | Record | Staked | Net $ | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Futures | 3 | 0-0 (3 pending) | $120 | $+0.00 | — |
| Week 1 | 16 | 7-9 | $640 | $-159.26 | -0.06 (2/16) |
| Week 2 | 8 | 4-3-1 | $240 | $+18.11 | +0.19 (6/8) |
| Week 3 | 10 | 6-4 | $300 | $+41.47 | -0.15 (3/10) |
| Week 4 | 12 | 9-3 | $310 | $+106.53 | -0.12 (4/12) |
| Week 5 | 26 | 15-10-1 | $650 | $+64.93 | +0.15 (10/26) |
| Week 6 | 32 | 18-13-1 | $796 | $+127.59 | -0.06 (12/32) |
| Week 7 | 39 | 22-16-1 | $1050 | $+144.37 | +0.09 (17/39) |
| Week 8 | 26 | 10-16 | $700 | $-226.95 | +0.38 (13/26) |
Record by team
| Team | Bets | W | L | P | Net $ | My note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Army | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | $+131.00 | 📝 |
| Liberty | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | $+90.80 | 📝 |
| Texas Tech | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | $+81.81 | 📝 |
| Georgia | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | $+79.27 | 📝 |
| Air Force | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | $+58.97 | 📝 |
| Washington | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | $+46.09 | 📝 |
| Memphis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | $+45.45 | 📝 |
| South Alabama | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | $+45.45 | 📝 |
| Louisville | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | $+40.00 | 📝 |
| Western Kentucky | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | $+36.36 | 📝 |
| Kentucky | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | $+35.57 | 📝 |
| Notre Dame | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | $+34.78 | 📝 |
| Western Michigan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | $+30.00 | 📝 |
| Wake Forest | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | $+28.57 | 📝 |
| Buffalo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | $+28.57 | 📝 |
| Delaware | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | $+27.54 | 📝 |
| Michigan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | $+27.27 | 📝 |
| Central Michigan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | $+27.27 | 📝 |
| Nevada | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | $+27.27 | 📝 |
| Miami (OH) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | $+27.27 | 📝 |
| Louisiana Tech | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | $+27.27 | 📝 |
| San José State | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | $+27.27 | 📝 |
| Washington State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | $+26.28 | 📝 |
| Navy | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | $+26.09 | 📝 |
| Arizona | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | $+26.09 | 📝 |
| Missouri | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | $+25.45 | 📝 |
| Mississippi State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | $+23.18 | 📝 |
| Akron | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | $+19.05 | 📝 |
| New Mexico State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | $+19.05 | 📝 |
| Tulane | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | $+19.05 | 📝 |
| Marshall | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | $+19.05 | 📝 |
| BYU | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | $+18.18 | 📝 |
| Troy | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | $+18.18 | 📝 |
| Georgia Southern | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | $+18.18 | 📝 |
| UAB | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | $+18.18 | 📝 |
| App State | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | $+18.18 | 📝 |
| UConn | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | $+18.18 | 📝 |
| North Texas | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | $+17.85 | 📝 |
| East Carolina | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | $+17.62 | 📝 |
| Wyoming | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | $+17.39 | 📝 |
| Texas State | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | $+17.39 | 📝 |
| Texas A&M | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | $+15.45 | 📝 |
| South Florida | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | $+13.49 | 📝 |
| Florida | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | $+7.27 | 📝 |
| Alabama | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | $+4.60 | 📝 |
| Iowa State | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | $+0.00 | 📝 |
| Ohio State | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | $+0.00 | 📝 |
| Ohio | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | $-1.42 | 📝 |
| New Mexico | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | $-2.73 | 📝 |
| Toledo | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | $-2.73 | 📝 |
| Louisiana | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | $-2.73 | 📝 |
| Vanderbilt | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | $-4.55 | 📝 |
| LSU | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | $-11.82 | 📝 |
| Texas | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | $-12.73 | 📝 |
| Penn State | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | $-20.00 | 📝 |
| Utah State | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | $-20.00 | 📝 |
| Jacksonville State | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | $-20.00 | 📝 |
| Kennesaw State | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | $-20.00 | 📝 |
| Wisconsin | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | $-20.00 | 📝 |
| North Dakota State | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | $-20.00 | 📝 |
| Florida International | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | $-20.00 | 📝 |
| Virginia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | $-20.00 | 📝 |
| Clemson | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | $-23.91 | 📝 |
| Iowa | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | $-24.55 | 📝 |
| James Madison | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | $-29.36 | 📝 |
| Kansas | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | $-30.00 | 📝 |
| Syracuse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | $-30.00 | 📝 |
| West Virginia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | $-30.00 | 📝 |
| Illinois | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | $-30.00 | 📝 |
| Northwestern | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | $-30.00 | 📝 |
| Duke | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | $-30.00 | 📝 |
| Utah | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | $-30.00 | 📝 |
| Pittsburgh | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | $-42.15 | 📝 |
| Hawai'i | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | $-50.00 | 📝 |
| Auburn | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | $-60.00 | 📝 |
| Oregon | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | $-60.00 | 📝 |
| Houston | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | $-60.00 | 📝 |
| Colorado | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | $-60.00 | 📝 |
| Tennessee | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | $-61.81 | 📝 |
| Florida State | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | $-70.00 | 📝 |
| NC State | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | $-70.00 | 📝 |
| TCU | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | $-80.00 | 📝 |
| Georgia Tech | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | $-80.00 | 📝 |
| Indiana | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | $-100.00 | 📝 |
My record betting on each team (game totals aren't counted against a team). Notes show on the weekly sheet whenever that team plays.
Every bet
172 bets · click to show
| Wk | Bet | Line | CLV | Odds | Stake | Kickoff / score | Result | Payout | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | Iowa State OVER 4.5 season wins | 4.5 | — | -145 | $40 | — | pending | — | Big 12 Regular Season Wins market, slip ...131; model 6.7 wins, lean +0.6 |
| — | Florida State OVER 6.5 season wins | 6.5 | — | +150 | $40 | — | pending | — | ACC Regular Season Wins market, slip ...132; alt line above 5.5 consensus; model 7.0, lean +1.2 (flagged over) |
| — | Vanderbilt OVER 5.5 season wins | 5.5 | — | -145 | $40 | — | pending | — | SEC Regular Season Wins market; model 7.2 wins, lean +0.5 |
| 1 | TCU -8 vs North Carolina | -8 | -0.5 | -110 | $50 |
North Carolina 15 – TCU 10
|
LOSS | $-50.00 | consensus was -7.75; Dublin game |
| 1 | NC State +4 @ Virginia | +4 | +0.0 | -110 | $50 |
NC State 8 – Virginia 34
|
LOSS | $-50.00 | "maybe" bet that became real |
| 1 | Hawai'i +4 @ Stanford | +4 | -1.0 | -110 | $50 |
Hawai'i 27 – Stanford 37
|
LOSS | $-50.00 | model had Hawai'i winning outright |
| 1 | Memphis +4 @ UNLV | +4 | -1.0 | -110 | $50 |
Memphis 27 – UNLV 21
|
WIN | $+45.45 | model's biggest week-1 lean |
| 1 | Florida State -31 vs New Mexico State | -31 | +0.0 | -110 | $50 |
New Mexico State 17 – Florida State 34
|
LOSS | $-50.00 | Ken fading the model (it said FSU by 26) |
| 1 | Akron +27.5 @ Wake Forest | +27.5 | +0.0 | -105 | $20 |
Akron 16 – Wake Forest 38
|
WIN | $+19.05 | book statement: settled WIN +$39.05 (stake derived from return); placement time approximate (statement shows settlement only) |
| 1 | Georgia Tech -6.5 vs Colorado | -6.5 | +0.0 | -115 | $50 |
Colorado 14 – Georgia Tech 13
|
LOSS | $-50.00 | book statement: settled LOSS. STAKE INFERRED at $50 (statement shows result only) - confirm; placement time approximate |
| 1 | UNDER 54.5 UAB @ Illinois | 54.5 | +0.0 | -115 | $30 |
UAB 23 – Illinois 42
|
LOSS | $-30.00 | UNDER 54.5; book statement: placed 9/3 6:12 PM, settled LOSS |
| 1 | Texas -29.5 vs Texas State | -29.5 | +0.0 | -110 | $30 |
Texas State 7 – Texas 59
|
WIN | $+27.27 | book statement: to win $27.27 |
| 1 | East Carolina +28 @ Alabama | +28 | +0.0 | -110 | $30 |
East Carolina 10 – Alabama 48
|
LOSS | $-30.00 | book statement: to win $27.27 |
| 1 | Auburn -7.5 vs Baylor | -7.5 | -1.0 | -105 | $30 |
Baylor 16 – Auburn 17
|
LOSS | $-30.00 | book statement: to win $28.57; CFBD lists the site as neutral |
| 1 | Georgia -46.5 vs Tennessee State | -46.5 | +2.5 | -115 | $30 |
Tennessee State 3 – Georgia 63
|
WIN | $+26.09 | book statement: to win $26.09; FCS opponent |
| 1 | Clemson +10 vs LSU | +10 | +0.0 | -110 | $50 |
Clemson 10 – LSU 51
|
LOSS | $-50.00 | ✎ |
| 1 | Washington State +23.5 @ Washington | +23.5 | +0.5 | -105 | $40 |
Washington State 10 – Washington 24
|
WIN | $+38.10 | placed 12:25 PM ET, kick 4:00 PM; opener -21.5 moved to -23.5; book balance after $354.45 |
| 1 | Louisville +6.5 vs Ole Miss | +6.5 | +0.0 | +100 | $40 |
Louisville 38 – Ole Miss 41
|
WIN | $+40.00 | placed 12:25 PM ET, kick 7:30 PM; opener -8.5 moved to -6.5; even money; book balance after $314.45 |
| 1 | Notre Dame -21 vs Wisconsin | -21 | -0.5 | -115 | $40 |
Wisconsin 13 – Notre Dame 41
|
WIN | $+34.78 | placed 12:25 PM ET, kick 7:30 PM; opener -16.5 moved to -21; book balance after $274.45 |
| 2 | Georgia Tech +13 vs Tennessee | +13 | +0.5 | -110 | $30 |
Tennessee 45 – Georgia Tech 24
|
LOSS | $-30.00 | placed 8:53 AM ET Mon; DK opened -8.5 moved to -13.5; median 13.25; book balance after $477.33 |
| 2 | Ohio State +1 @ Texas | +1 | -1.0 | -115 | $30 |
Ohio State 23 – Texas 24
|
PUSH | $+0.00 | placed 8:53 AM ET Mon; opened Texas -2/-2.5 moved to -1/-1.5; Texas LT Goosby questionable; book balance after $447.33 |
| 2 | Oregon -22.5 @ Oklahoma State | -22.5 | +1.5 | -110 | $30 |
Oregon 31 – Oklahoma State 39
|
LOSS | $-30.00 | placed 8:53 AM ET Mon; opened -20.5; book balance after $417.33 |
| 2 | Michigan +5.5 vs Oklahoma | +5.5 | +1.0 | -110 | $30 |
Oklahoma 10 – Michigan 17
|
WIN | $+27.27 | placed 8:53 AM ET Mon; opened Michigan -1.5 moved to Oklahoma -6 after 13-12 WMU escape; median 5.75; book balance after $387.33 |
| 2 | Alabama -10.5 @ Kentucky | -10.5 | -2.5 | -105 | $30 |
Alabama 45 – Kentucky 17
|
WIN | $+28.57 | placed 8:53 AM ET Mon; median -10.25; book balance after $357.33 |
| 2 | Georgia -39.5 vs Western Kentucky | -39.5 | +0.5 | -120 | $30 |
Western Kentucky 20 – Georgia 70
|
WIN | $+25.00 | placed 8:53 AM ET Mon; median -40 opened -37.5; paid -120 for the half point; book balance after $327.33 |
| 2 | Texas A&M -14 vs Arizona State | -14 | +1.0 | -110 | $30 |
Arizona State 20 – Texas A&M 48
|
WIN | $+27.27 | placed 8:53 AM ET Mon; line flat at -14; Kalshi -14.5 was 49c; book balance after $297.33 |
| 2 | Kansas +4.5 vs Missouri | +4.5 | +0.5 | -115 | $30 |
Missouri 38 – Kansas 21
|
LOSS | $-30.00 | tonight |
| 3 | Syracuse +11.5 @ Pittsburgh | +11.5 | +0.5 | -110 | $30 |
Syracuse 13 – Pittsburgh 27
|
LOSS | $-30.00 | placed Sun evening Sep 13 (Bovada shows 11:05 PM); claude: dropped this one (thin reason); last bet placed, book balance after $255.44 |
| 3 | LSU -3 @ Ole Miss | -3 | -0.5 | -120 | $30 |
LSU 24 – Ole Miss 32
|
LOSS | $-30.00 | placed Sun evening Sep 13 (Bovada shows 11:05 PM); claude: leaned Ole Miss +3; paid -120 for the 3 |
| 3 | Mississippi State +3.5 @ South Carolina | +3.5 | +0.5 | -120 | $30 |
Mississippi State 41 – South Carolina 34
|
WIN | $+25.00 | placed Sun evening Sep 13 (Bovada shows 11:05 PM); claude: agree, best opinion on the board; paid -120 for the half point |
| 3 | Texas A&M -17 vs Kentucky | -17 | -0.5 | -105 | $30 |
Kentucky 31 – Texas A&M 21
|
LOSS | $-30.00 | placed Sun evening Sep 13 (Bovada shows 11:05 PM); claude: no view; board consensus -16.8 |
| 3 | Alabama -20.5 vs Florida State | -20.5 | -2.0 | -110 | $30 |
Florida State 36 – Alabama 50
|
LOSS | $-30.00 | placed Sun evening Sep 13 (Bovada shows 11:05 PM); claude: no view, priced |
| 3 | Vanderbilt -3.5 vs NC State | -3.5 | -0.5 | -110 | $30 |
NC State 31 – Vanderbilt 35
|
WIN | $+27.27 | placed Sun evening Sep 13 (Bovada shows 11:05 PM); claude: no view, two shaky teams |
| 3 | Clemson -3 vs North Carolina | -3 | +0.0 | -115 | $30 |
North Carolina 20 – Clemson 28
|
WIN | $+26.09 | placed Sun evening Sep 13 (Bovada shows 11:05 PM); claude: leaned UNC +3; line opened -6.2 |
| 3 | Georgia -24.5 @ Arkansas | -24.5 | +0.0 | -110 | $30 |
Georgia 45 – Arkansas 17
|
WIN | $+27.27 | placed Sun evening Sep 13 (Bovada shows 11:05 PM); claude: pass; DK opener was -17.5 |
| 3 | Florida -2.5 @ Auburn | -2.5 | +0.0 | -110 | $30 |
Florida 44 – Auburn 39
|
WIN | $+27.27 | placed Sun evening Sep 13 (Bovada shows 11:05 PM); claude: leaned Auburn +2.5; ODDS AND STAKE ASSUMED -110/$30 - Ken to confirm; first bet placed |
| 3 | Wake Forest +21 vs Miami | +21 | +1.0 | -105 | $30 |
Miami 33 – Wake Forest 20
|
WIN | $+28.57 | placed Sun evening Sep 13 (Bovada shows 11:05 PM); claude: big road favourite category, coin flip; board +21.8; book balance after $495.44 |
| 4 | Georgia -14 vs Oklahoma | -14 | -3.0 | -110 | $30 |
Oklahoma 13 – Georgia 41
|
WIN | $+27.27 | Ken's own read: starters have been +11.9/game vs the half-line and Smart was 0-12 laying 38 before this year; Bovada -14 is the worst price on the board |
| 4 | Liberty -2.5 @ Coastal Carolina | -2.5 | +0.0 | -120 | $30 |
Liberty 34 – Coastal Carolina 17
|
WIN | $+25.00 | Thursday; favourite-side model pick |
| 4 | Army -3 @ Temple | -3 | +1.0 | -110 | $30 |
Army 21 – Temple 17
|
WIN | $+27.27 | Friday; favourite-side model pick |
| 4 | Texas -3.5 @ Tennessee | -3.5 | +2.0 | -110 | $30 |
Texas 20 – Tennessee 17
|
LOSS | $-30.00 | Ken wanted -6; DK opened -6.5 and moved to -4; Bovada -3.5 is the best price available |
| 4 | James Madison -4.5 @ Old Dominion | -4.5 | +2.5 | -115 | $30 |
James Madison 46 – Old Dominion 20
|
WIN | $+26.09 | favourite-side model pick; Bovada -4.5 beats the -5.25 median |
| 4 | West Virginia -1.5 vs Oklahoma State | -1.5 | +0.0 | -110 | $30 |
Oklahoma State 41 – West Virginia 24
|
LOSS | $-30.00 | favourite-side model pick |
| 4 | Air Force -3.5 @ Nevada | -3.5 | +2.5 | -115 | $30 |
Air Force 36 – Nevada 33
|
LOSS | $-30.00 | favourite-side model pick |
| 4 | Iowa +4 @ Michigan | +4 | -1.0 | -110 | $20 |
Iowa 20 – Michigan 19
|
WIN | $+18.18 | KEN: Michigan has looked bad but Iowa hasn't been great. |
| 4 | Vanderbilt +9.5 @ Auburn | +9.5 | -0.5 | -110 | $20 |
Vanderbilt 15 – Auburn 21
|
WIN | $+18.18 | KEN: not strong on Vandy - they are doing okay and Auburn hasn't looked great. (Claude preferred Auburn: Vandy -11.1/game vs the half-line.) |
| 4 | Alabama -13.5 vs South Carolina | -13.5 | -1.0 | -110 | $20 |
South Carolina 18 – Alabama 49
|
WIN | $+18.18 | KEN: South Carolina is bad and Alabama is good. (Claude flagged Alabama only +1.5 vs half-lines despite +8.3 on finals.) |
| 4 | LSU -10 vs Texas A&M | -10 | -1.5 | -110 | $20 |
Texas A&M 6 – LSU 35
|
WIN | $+18.18 | KEN: Texas A&M is bad. |
| 4 | Mississippi State -6 vs Missouri | -6 | -2.5 | -110 | $20 |
Missouri 24 – Mississippi State 31
|
WIN | $+18.18 | KEN: Miss State has an amazing QB. (Claude agreed; first-half gap +11.7. Caution: hottest ATS team, and hot teams cover 49% next.) |
| 5 | Ohio -5.5 @ Kent State | -5.5 | -2.0 | -112 | $30 |
Ohio 13 – Kent State 10
|
LOSS | $-29.99 | KALSHI 'Ohio wins by over 5.5' Yes; FILLED 56.86 contracts avg 52.75c, cost $29.99, pays $56.86 (Kalshi portfolio 9/27); placed Sun 9/27 before Bovada posted |
| 5 | Air Force -1.5 vs Navy | -1.5 | +1.5 | -116 | $30 |
Navy 9 – Air Force 14
|
WIN | $+25.85 | KALSHI 'Air Force wins by over 1.5' Yes; FILLED 55.8 contracts avg 53.75c, cost $29.99, pays $55.80 (Kalshi portfolio 9/27); placed Sun 9/27 before Bovada posted |
| 5 | South Florida -6.5 vs Temple | -6.5 | -1.0 | -116 | $30 |
Temple 17 – South Florida 13
|
LOSS | $-29.99 | KALSHI 'South Florida wins by over 6.5' Yes; FILLED 55.8 contracts avg 53.75c, cost $29.99, pays $55.80 (Kalshi portfolio 9/27); placed Sun 9/27 before Bovada posted |
| 5 | Iowa +13.5 vs Ohio State | +13.5 | -0.5 | -103 | $20 |
Ohio State 31 – Iowa 14
|
LOSS | $-20.00 | KALSHI No on 'Ohio St. wins by over 13.5' = Iowa +13.5; 39.42 contracts avg 50.73c, cost $20.00, pays $39.42 (Kalshi portfolio 9/27) |
| 5 | Alabama -6.5 @ Mississippi State | -6.5 | -1.0 | -112 | $20 |
Alabama 56 – Mississippi State 23
|
WIN | $+17.85 | KALSHI Yes on 'Alabama wins by over 6.5'; 37.9 contracts avg 52.75c, cost $19.99, pays $37.90 (Kalshi portfolio 9/27); 2 pts worse than the -4.5 Claude suggested |
| 5 | Pittsburgh +4.5 @ Virginia Tech | +4.5 | +3.0 | -112 | $20 |
Pittsburgh 35 – Virginia Tech 33
|
WIN | $+17.85 | KALSHI No on 'Virginia Tech wins by over 4.5' = Pitt +4.5; 37.9 contracts avg 52.75c, cost $19.99, pays $37.90 (Kalshi portfolio 9/27) |
| 5 | North Texas +2.5 @ Tulsa | +2.5 | +3.5 | -112 | $20 |
North Texas 45 – Tulsa 44
|
WIN | $+17.85 | KALSHI No on 'Tulsa wins by over 2.5' = North Texas +2.5; 37.9 contracts avg 52.75c, cost $19.99, pays $37.90 (Kalshi portfolio 9/27); Thursday |
| 5 | Iowa State -3 vs West Virginia | -3 | +0.0 | -105 | $30 |
West Virginia 42 – Iowa State 45
|
PUSH | $+0.00 | Bovada 8:56 PM Sun; also helps Ken's Iowa State win-total over |
| 5 | Central Michigan -6 vs Akron | -6 | +1.0 | -110 | $30 |
Akron 17 – Central Michigan 41
|
WIN | $+27.27 | Bovada 8:56 PM Sun |
| 5 | New Mexico -22.5 vs UTEP | -22.5 | +0.5 | -110 | $30 |
UTEP 7 – New Mexico 61
|
WIN | $+27.27 | Bovada 8:56 PM Sun |
| 5 | James Madison -18.5 vs Marshall | -18.5 | -0.5 | -110 | $30 |
Marshall 17 – James Madison 45
|
WIN | $+27.27 | Bovada 8:56 PM Sun; opened -13.5/-14 this morning, moved 4.5 toward the model before Bovada posted |
| 5 | Toledo -20 @ Ball State | -20 | +1.0 | -110 | $30 |
Toledo 39 – Ball State 24
|
LOSS | $-30.00 | Bovada 8:56 PM Sun; was -17.5 this morning |
| 5 | Illinois -9.5 vs Purdue | -9.5 | +0.5 | -110 | $30 |
Purdue 24 – Illinois 17
|
LOSS | $-30.00 | Bovada 8:56 PM Sun |
| 5 | South Alabama -14 vs UL Monroe | -14 | +0.0 | -110 | $30 |
UL Monroe 35 – South Alabama 52
|
WIN | $+27.27 | Bovada 8:56 PM Sun |
| 5 | Washington State -1.5 vs Fresno State | -1.5 | +0.5 | -110 | $30 |
Fresno State 26 – Washington State 6
|
LOSS | $-30.00 | Bovada 8:56 PM Sun |
| 5 | Texas Tech -13.5 @ Colorado | -13.5 | +0.0 | -110 | $30 |
Texas Tech 29 – Colorado 7
|
WIN | $+27.27 | Bovada 8:56 PM Sun |
| 5 | Louisiana -7 vs Arkansas State | -7 | -1.0 | -110 | $30 |
Arkansas State 20 – Louisiana 23
|
LOSS | $-30.00 | Bovada 8:56 PM Sun; slip says UL Lafayette |
| 5 | Georgia -25 vs Vanderbilt | -25 | +0.5 | -110 | $20 |
Vanderbilt 14 – Georgia 38
|
LOSS | $-20.00 | Bovada 8:59 PM Sun; Ken's Georgia-is-underrated thesis, Claude agreed |
| 5 | Missouri +5 vs Florida | +5 | -0.5 | -110 | $20 |
Florida 17 – Missouri 45
|
WIN | $+18.18 | Bovada 8:59 PM Sun; small lean KEN: thinks Claude is probably wrong here (Florida 2 tiers above Missouri) but bet it anyway so Claude's picks get a real test. |
| 5 | Kentucky +3 @ South Carolina | +3 | +0.5 | -115 | $20 |
Kentucky 35 – South Carolina 34
|
WIN | $+17.39 | Bovada 8:59 PM Sun; line opened SC -7, collapsed to -3 - market says SC is bad |
| 5 | Tennessee -7 vs Auburn | -7 | -0.5 | -110 | $20 |
Auburn 14 – Tennessee 24
|
WIN | $+18.18 | KEN's own bet, Bovada 8:59 PM Sun. KEN: Tennessee is 2 tiers above Auburn in my SEC ranking, at home, and it's only one TD. |
| 5 | Iowa +13.5 vs Ohio State | +13.5 | -0.5 | +100 | $20 |
Ohio State 31 – Iowa 14
|
LOSS | $-20.00 | KEN's own bet, Bovada 8:59 PM Sun, even money; SECOND Iowa +13.5 - the first is \$20 on Kalshi. KEN: Ohio State might be down a notch this year and Iowa up a notch - and I have a soft spot for Iowa. |
| 5 | Texas A&M -14 vs Arkansas | -14 | +0.0 | -110 | $20 |
Arkansas 7 – Texas A&M 34
|
WIN | $+18.18 | KEN's own bet, Bovada 8:59 PM Sun. Last week Ken said 'Texas A&M is bad' (LSU won 35-6). KEN: A&M is bad but Arkansas is really bad, and A&M is coming off 2 brutal losses so someone is going to pay. A&M was supposed to be really good, the coach is on the warm seat, and they should be embarrassed by how they played - stats can't measure everything. (Backtest 2014-25: teams after 2 losses by 14+ laying 7+ covered 41%, n=100, p=0.07 - leans against, not significant.) |
| 5 | New Mexico State -2.5 vs Western Kentucky | -2.5 | -1.0 | -105 | $20 |
Western Kentucky 13 – New Mexico State 34
|
WIN | $+19.05 | KEN's own bet, Thu 10/1 before the 8 PM kick. KEN: these 2 teams are bad - take the home team laying 2.5. (Line opened -1.5. NMSU failed to cover its last two; WKU covered its last two.) |
| 5 | Liberty -7 @ Delaware | -7 | +0.0 | -110 | $20 |
Liberty 30 – Delaware 14
|
WIN | $+18.18 | KEN's own bet, Bovada Fri 10/2 before the 7 PM kick. KEN: I like Liberty from last week (won -2.5 at Coastal by 17). |
| 5 | Penn State -2.5 @ Northwestern | -2.5 | +0.0 | -110 | $20 |
Penn State 13 – Northwestern 34
|
LOSS | $-20.00 | KEN's own bet, Bovada Fri 10/2 before the 8 PM kick. KEN: no strong opinion, just picked it. |
| 6 | Texas -7.5 @ Oklahoma | -7.5 | +0.5 | -110 | $20 |
Texas 24 – Oklahoma 27
|
LOSS | $-20.00 | KEN's own bet (Claude said pass); Bovada Tue 10/6. KEN: Texas is decent and Oklahoma can't score, certainly not against the Texas defense. It's hard to win with 0 points. |
| 6 | James Madison -7.5 vs Georgia Southern | -7.5 | -0.5 | -110 | $20 |
James Madison 27 – Georgia Southern 24
|
LOSS | $-20.00 | KEN's own bet (Claude said pass); Bovada Tue 10/6. KEN: ACCIDENTAL double - forgot I already had JMU at $30. |
| 6 | Georgia +1.5 @ Alabama | +1.5 | -1.0 | -110 | $26 |
Georgia 20 – Alabama 17
|
WIN | $+23.64 | claude lean; Bovada Tue 10/6 KEN: Georgia is great - I think the best team in the country. |
| 6 | Kentucky +8 vs LSU | +8 | -1.0 | -110 | $20 |
LSU 34 – Kentucky 35
|
WIN | $+18.18 | KEN's own bet (Claude said pass); Bovada Tue 10/6. KEN: I kind of like Kentucky and my verdict is still out on LSU - thought they'd be super good but they aren't yet. (He thought the model had Kentucky; it had LSU by 9 - a coin flip at +8.) |
| 6 | Tennessee -13.5 @ Arkansas | -13.5 | +0.5 | -110 | $20 |
Tennessee 24 – Arkansas 17
|
LOSS | $-20.00 | KEN's own bet (Claude said pass); Bovada Tue 10/6. KEN: Tennessee is really good and Arkansas is the worst team in the SEC, by a pretty good margin. |
| 6 | Vanderbilt +9.5 vs Ole Miss | +9.5 | +0.5 | -110 | $20 |
Ole Miss 52 – Vanderbilt 17
|
LOSS | $-20.00 | claude lean; Bovada Tue 10/6 |
| 6 | Florida -11.5 vs South Carolina | -11.5 | -1.0 | -110 | $20 |
South Carolina 38 – Florida 19
|
LOSS | $-20.00 | KEN's own bet (Claude said pass); Bovada Tue 10/6. KEN: Florida is pretty good and South Carolina is bad. |
| 6 | BYU -10 vs Iowa State | -10 | +1.0 | -110 | $20 |
Iowa State 10 – BYU 24
|
WIN | $+18.18 | KEN's own bet (Claude said pass); Bovada Tue 10/6. KEN: BYU has an amazing QB. Betting on it doesn't change the outcome: if Iowa State wins that's good for my win total, and if BYU covers I win this. Most likely BYU wins by less than 10. |
| 6 | Wyoming +6.5 @ San José State | +6.5 | +2.5 | -115 | $20 |
Wyoming 16 – San José State 13
|
WIN | $+17.39 | KEN's own bet (Claude said pass); Bovada Tue 10/6. KEN: possible MISCLICK - I was clicking favourites/home teams and got carried away; Wyoming is the road dog. |
| 6 | Utah State -5 vs Washington State | -5 | -1.0 | -110 | $20 |
Washington State 16 – Utah State 17
|
LOSS | $-20.00 | KEN's own bet (Claude said pass); Bovada Tue 10/6. KEN: (probably a MISCLICK - he meant Iowa +3 at Washington, same Fri 9 PM slot; he really likes Iowa) |
| 6 | South Alabama +1.5 @ Arkansas State | +1.5 | -1.5 | -110 | $20 |
South Alabama 56 – Arkansas State 49
|
WIN | $+18.18 | KEN's own bet (Claude said pass); Bovada Tue 10/6. KEN: (no reason given) |
| 6 | Florida State +3.5 @ Louisville | +3.5 | -1.0 | -110 | $20 |
Florida State 20 – Louisville 44
|
LOSS | $-20.00 | KEN's own bet (Claude said pass); Bovada Tue 10/6. KEN: I want them to win for my season win-total bet. |
| 6 | South Florida +7.5 @ UTSA | +7.5 | +2.0 | -115 | $20 |
South Florida 24 – UTSA 31
|
WIN | $+17.39 | claude lean; Bovada Tue 10/6 |
| 6 | Western Kentucky -2.5 vs Missouri State | -2.5 | -4.5 | -110 | $20 |
Missouri State 13 – Western Kentucky 34
|
WIN | $+18.18 | KEN's own bet (Claude said pass); Bovada Tue 10/6. KEN: silly reason - I watched them and enjoyed watching them play. |
| 6 | New Mexico State +6.5 @ Florida International | +6.5 | -0.5 | -110 | $20 |
New Mexico State 3 – Florida International 22
|
LOSS | $-20.00 | KEN's own bet (Claude said pass); Bovada Tue 10/6. KEN: silly reason - I watched them and enjoyed watching them play. |
| 6 | Jacksonville State -3 @ Kennesaw State | -3 | +0.0 | +100 | $20 |
Jacksonville State 27 – Kennesaw State 26
|
LOSS | $-20.00 | claude lean; Bovada Tue 10/6 |
| 6 | Troy -10 vs Southern Miss | -10 | -0.5 | -110 | $20 |
Southern Miss 34 – Troy 55
|
WIN | $+18.18 | KEN's own bet (Claude said pass); Bovada Tue 10/6. KEN: I looked at Southern Miss's numbers and their defense is awful. |
| 6 | Air Force -7.5 @ Northern Illinois | -7.5 | -0.5 | -105 | $30 |
Air Force 28 – Northern Illinois 7
|
WIN | $+28.57 | official $30 favourite-side model pick; Bovada Tue 10/6 |
| 6 | James Madison -7.5 @ Georgia Southern | -7.5 | -0.5 | -110 | $30 |
James Madison 27 – Georgia Southern 24
|
LOSS | $-30.00 | official $30 favourite-side model pick; Bovada Tue 10/6 |
| 6 | Nevada -9.5 @ UTEP | -9.5 | +0.5 | -110 | $30 |
Nevada 30 – UTEP 13
|
WIN | $+27.27 | official $30 favourite-side model pick; Bovada Tue 10/6 |
| 6 | East Carolina -10 vs Rice | -10 | +0.0 | -105 | $30 |
Rice 12 – East Carolina 28
|
WIN | $+28.57 | official $30 favourite-side model pick; Bovada Tue 10/6 |
| 6 | Ohio -3 vs Central Michigan | -3 | -0.5 | -105 | $30 |
Central Michigan 14 – Ohio 31
|
WIN | $+28.57 | official $30 favourite-side model pick; Bovada Tue 10/6 |
| 6 | Oregon -11 vs UCLA | -11 | -0.5 | -110 | $30 |
UCLA 17 – Oregon 15
|
LOSS | $-30.00 | official $30 favourite-side model pick; Bovada Tue 10/6 |
| 6 | Western Michigan -14 vs Kent State | -14 | +0.0 | +100 | $30 |
Kent State 7 – Western Michigan 38
|
WIN | $+30.00 | official $30 favourite-side model pick; Bovada Tue 10/6 |
| 6 | Navy -2.5 vs Tulsa | -2.5 | +0.5 | -115 | $30 |
Tulsa 26 – Navy 34
|
WIN | $+26.09 | official $30 favourite-side model pick; Bovada Tue 10/6 |
| 6 | Missouri -3.5 vs Texas A&M | -3.5 | +1.0 | -110 | $30 |
Texas A&M 6 – Missouri 27
|
WIN | $+27.27 | official $30 favourite-side model pick; Bovada Tue 10/6 |
| 6 | Indiana -7 @ Nebraska | -7 | +1.5 | -115 | $30 |
Indiana 20 – Nebraska 17
|
LOSS | $-30.00 | official $30 favourite-side model pick; Bovada Tue 10/6 |
| 6 | Army -3 vs Tulane | -3 | +2.5 | -115 | $30 |
Tulane 17 – Army 20
|
PUSH | $+0.00 | official $30 favourite-side model pick; Bovada Tue 10/6 |
| 6 | Arizona -3 @ West Virginia | -3 | +0.5 | -115 | $30 |
Arizona 52 – West Virginia 31
|
WIN | $+26.09 | official $30 favourite-side model pick; Bovada Tue 10/6 |
| 6 | Pittsburgh -4 vs North Carolina | -4 | -0.5 | -110 | $30 |
North Carolina 21 – Pittsburgh 17
|
LOSS | $-30.00 | official $30 favourite-side model pick; Bovada Tue 10/6 |
| 6 | Liberty -14 vs Sam Houston | -14 | -0.5 | -105 | $30 |
Sam Houston 3 – Liberty 35
|
WIN | $+28.57 | official $30 favourite-side model pick; Bovada Tue 10/6 |
| 6 | Iowa +3 @ Washington | +3 | +0.0 | -110 | $30 |
Iowa 41 – Washington 24
|
WIN | $+27.27 | Bovada (odds ASSUMED -110 - Ken to confirm). Claude lean. KEN: I really like Iowa - one of my favourite teams. Replaces the misclicked Utah State -5 (same Fri 9 PM slot). Exactly-3 Washington win = push. |
| 7 | Delaware -2.5 @ Middle Tennessee | -2.5 | -1.5 | -115 | $20 |
Delaware 30 – Middle Tennessee 33
|
LOSS | $-20.00 | claude lean; Bovada Sun 10/11 |
| 7 | Jacksonville State -3 vs Florida International | -3 | +0.0 | -110 | $30 |
Florida International 24 – Jacksonville State 27
|
PUSH | $+0.00 | official $30 favourite-side model pick; Bovada Sun 10/11 |
| 7 | Kennesaw State -3 @ Missouri State | -3 | -0.5 | -115 | $20 |
Kennesaw State 21 – Missouri State 24
|
LOSS | $-20.00 | claude lean; Bovada Sun 10/11 |
| 7 | Western Kentucky -1 @ Sam Houston | -1 | +0.0 | -110 | $20 |
Western Kentucky 16 – Sam Houston 3
|
WIN | $+18.18 | OPPOSITE of Claude's tilt/lean (Claude had the other side) - possibly a favourite-click; Ken to confirm intent; Bovada Sun 10/11 |
| 7 | Georgia Southern -3.5 @ Old Dominion | -3.5 | -0.5 | -110 | $20 |
Georgia Southern 23 – Old Dominion 15
|
WIN | $+18.18 | OPPOSITE of Claude's tilt/lean (Claude had the other side) - possibly a favourite-click; Ken to confirm intent; Bovada Sun 10/11 |
| 7 | UAB +5 vs East Carolina | +5 | +0.0 | -110 | $20 |
East Carolina 17 – UAB 30
|
WIN | $+18.18 | claude coin-flip tilt (model near the line); Bovada Sun 10/11 |
| 7 | Texas State -13 vs Colorado State | -13 | +2.0 | -115 | $20 |
Colorado State 27 – Texas State 66
|
WIN | $+17.39 | OPPOSITE of Claude's tilt/lean (Claude had the other side) - possibly a favourite-click; Ken to confirm intent; Bovada Sun 10/11 |
| 7 | Tulane +6.5 vs Memphis | +6.5 | +0.0 | -105 | $20 |
Memphis 17 – Tulane 31
|
WIN | $+19.05 | claude coin-flip tilt (model near the line); Bovada Sun 10/11 |
| 7 | Washington +3 @ Purdue | +3 | +0.0 | +100 | $20 |
Washington 38 – Purdue 26
|
WIN | $+20.00 | claude lean; Bovada Sun 10/11 |
| 7 | App State -1 @ Coastal Carolina | -1 | +0.0 | -110 | $20 |
App State 35 – Coastal Carolina 32
|
WIN | $+18.18 | OPPOSITE of Claude's tilt/lean (Claude had the other side) - possibly a favourite-click; Ken to confirm intent; Bovada Sun 10/11 |
| 7 | Army -3 vs Florida Atlantic | -3 | -1.0 | -105 | $30 |
Florida Atlantic 24 – Army 56
|
WIN | $+28.57 | official $30 favourite-side model pick; Bovada Sun 10/11 |
| 7 | Texas -10 vs Florida | -10 | +2.5 | -110 | $20 |
Florida 27 – Texas 24
|
LOSS | $-20.00 | claude lean; Bovada Sun 10/11 |
| 7 | James Madison -12 vs Georgia State | -12 | -4.0 | -110 | $30 |
Georgia State 22 – James Madison 49
|
WIN | $+27.27 | official $30 favourite-side model pick; Bovada Sun 10/11 |
| 7 | Northwestern -8 @ Michigan State | -8 | -1.0 | -110 | $30 |
Northwestern 24 – Michigan State 21
|
LOSS | $-30.00 | official $30 favourite-side model pick; Bovada Sun 10/11 |
| 7 | Pittsburgh -6 @ Boston College | -6 | +0.5 | -110 | $30 |
Pittsburgh 21 – Boston College 27
|
LOSS | $-30.00 | official $30 favourite-side model pick; Bovada Sun 10/11 |
| 7 | Buffalo -3.5 vs Massachusetts | -3.5 | +3.5 | -105 | $30 |
Massachusetts 18 – Buffalo 25
|
WIN | $+28.57 | official $30 favourite-side model pick; Bovada Sun 10/11 |
| 7 | Texas Tech -14 vs Arizona State | -14 | +1.5 | -110 | $30 |
Arizona State 25 – Texas Tech 53
|
WIN | $+27.27 | official $30 favourite-side model pick; Bovada Sun 10/11 |
| 7 | Miami (OH) -10 vs Akron | -10 | -0.5 | -110 | $30 |
Akron 14 – Miami (OH) 34
|
WIN | $+27.27 | official $30 favourite-side model pick; Bovada Sun 10/11 |
| 7 | Georgia -19 vs Auburn | -19 | +0.5 | -110 | $30 |
Auburn 27 – Georgia 24
|
LOSS | $-30.00 | official $30 favourite-side model pick; Bovada Sun 10/11 |
| 7 | Toledo -5 @ Eastern Michigan | -5 | +2.0 | -110 | $30 |
Toledo 34 – Eastern Michigan 14
|
WIN | $+27.27 | official $30 favourite-side model pick; Bovada Sun 10/11 |
| 7 | Duke -3.5 vs North Carolina | -3.5 | -0.5 | -110 | $30 |
North Carolina 24 – Duke 20
|
LOSS | $-30.00 | official $30 favourite-side model pick; Bovada Sun 10/11 |
| 7 | Louisiana -4 vs Troy | -4 | -1.0 | -110 | $30 |
Troy 6 – Louisiana 33
|
WIN | $+27.27 | official $30 favourite-side model pick; Bovada Sun 10/11 |
| 7 | South Florida -20 vs Kent State | -20 | +0.5 | -115 | $30 |
Kent State 2 – South Florida 29
|
WIN | $+26.09 | official $30 favourite-side model pick; Bovada Sun 10/11 |
| 7 | Houston -4 vs Oklahoma State | -4 | +0.5 | -110 | $30 |
Oklahoma State 32 – Houston 35
|
LOSS | $-30.00 | official $30 favourite-side model pick; Bovada Sun 10/11 |
| 7 | Louisiana Tech -15 @ UL Monroe | -15 | +0.5 | -110 | $30 |
Louisiana Tech 24 – UL Monroe 0
|
WIN | $+27.27 | official $30 favourite-side model pick; Bovada Sun 10/11 |
| 7 | San José State -8 @ UTEP | -8 | -1.0 | -110 | $30 |
San José State 24 – UTEP 11
|
WIN | $+27.27 | official $30 favourite-side model pick; Bovada Sun 10/11 |
| 7 | Utah -16 @ Colorado | -16 | -1.0 | -110 | $30 |
Utah 27 – Colorado 24
|
LOSS | $-30.00 | official $30 favourite-side model pick; Bovada Sun 10/11 |
| 7 | New Mexico -14 @ Hawai'i | -14 | +0.5 | -115 | $30 |
New Mexico 21 – Hawai'i 10
|
LOSS | $-30.00 | official $30 favourite-side model pick; Bovada Sun 10/11 |
| 7 | Indiana +3.5 vs Ohio State | +3.5 | +1.0 | -110 | $20 |
Ohio State 19 – Indiana 15
|
LOSS | $-20.00 | claude lean; Bovada |
| 7 | Missouri +6 @ Ole Miss | +6 | +1.0 | -115 | $20 |
Missouri 3 – Ole Miss 31
|
LOSS | $-20.00 | claude lean; Bovada |
| 7 | Washington State +18.5 @ Oregon State | +18.5 | +0.0 | -110 | $20 |
Washington State 30 – Oregon State 48
|
WIN | $+18.18 | streak fade; Bovada |
| 7 | Wisconsin +3 @ UCLA | +3 | +0.5 | -110 | $20 |
Wisconsin 7 – UCLA 17
|
LOSS | $-20.00 | streak fade; Bovada |
| 7 | North Dakota State -16 vs Nevada | -16 | -2.0 | -110 | $20 |
Nevada 17 – North Dakota State 31
|
LOSS | $-20.00 | KEN's own read (Claude slight lean); Bovada. KEN: (reason pending) |
| 7 | Washington +3.5 @ Purdue | +3.5 | +0.5 | -115 | $30 |
Washington 38 – Purdue 26
|
WIN | $+26.09 | edge-7+ double-down, early start of the week-8 $60 rule (Ken 10/15); Bovada Thu 10/15 11:37-11:39 PM; balance after $84.75 |
| 7 | Texas Tech -16 vs Arizona State | -16 | -0.5 | -110 | $30 |
Arizona State 25 – Texas Tech 53
|
WIN | $+27.27 | edge-7+ double-down, early start of the week-8 $60 rule (Ken 10/15); Bovada Thu 10/15 11:37-11:39 PM; balance after $84.75 |
| 7 | Houston -4 vs Oklahoma State | -4 | +0.5 | -115 | $30 |
Oklahoma State 32 – Houston 35
|
LOSS | $-30.00 | edge-7+ double-down, early start of the week-8 $60 rule (Ken 10/15); Bovada Thu 10/15 11:37-11:39 PM; balance after $84.75 |
| 7 | Indiana +3.5 vs Ohio State | +3.5 | +1.0 | -115 | $30 |
Ohio State 19 – Indiana 15
|
LOSS | $-30.00 | edge-7+ double-down, early start of the week-8 $60 rule (Ken 10/15); Bovada Thu 10/15 11:37-11:39 PM; balance after $84.75 |
| 7 | Army -2.5 vs Florida Atlantic | -2.5 | -0.5 | -120 | $30 |
Florida Atlantic 24 – Army 56
|
WIN | $+25.00 | edge-7+ double-down, early start of the week-8 $60 rule (Ken 10/15); Bovada Thu 10/15 11:37-11:39 PM; balance after $84.75 |
| 7 | Air Force +1 vs UNLV | +1 | +0.0 | -110 | $60 |
UNLV 31 – Air Force 41
|
WIN | $+54.55 | official $60 (new edge-7+ rule; underdog under 14) - Friday reminder; Bovada Sat 10/17 before 3:30 kick; DK had moved to Air Force -1.5; odds -110 (Ken confirmed) |
| 8 | Delaware +0 vs Missouri State | +0 | +3.0 | -148 | $30 |
Missouri State 38 – Delaware 61
|
WIN | $+20.27 | MONEYLINE by mistake (meant 'Delaware wins by over 3.5'); logged as a 0 spread = wins outright (no ties in CFB). Kalshi 'Delaware wins outright' Yes, cost $30.00, pays $50.24; Sun 10/18 early-line buy. CLV here is NOT comparable (0 vs a -3 close) - ignore it for this row |
| 8 | James Madison -10.5 @ App State | -10.5 | +2.5 | -121 | $30 |
James Madison 31 – App State 34
|
LOSS | $-29.99 | edge-7+ $30 on Kalshi, Sun 10/18 early-line buy; 'JMU wins by over 10.5' Yes, cost $29.99, pays $54.79 |
| 8 | TCU -7.5 vs West Virginia | -7.5 | +2.5 | -110 | $30 |
West Virginia 24 – TCU 20
|
LOSS | $-30.00 | official $60 edge-7+ - second $30 at Bovada (first $30 on Kalshi at -7.5); Bovada Sun 10/18 night |
| 8 | Army +1.5 @ Tulsa | +1.5 | +3.0 | -131 | $30 |
Army 38 – Tulsa 35
|
WIN | $+22.89 | edge-7+ $30 on Kalshi, Sun 10/18 early-line buy; 'Tulsa wins by over 1.5' No, cost $29.99, pays $52.87 |
| 8 | Tennessee -2.5 @ South Carolina | -2.5 | -5.0 | -112 | $30 |
Tennessee 24 – South Carolina 27
|
LOSS | $-29.99 | KEN's read (SEC; 0-2 fading Tennessee, rates SC D tier); Kalshi 'Tennessee wins by over 2.5' Yes, cost $29.00 + $0.99 fee, pays $56.86; Sun 10/18 afternoon |
| 8 | Florida International -10 vs Middle Tennessee | -10 | +0.0 | -110 | $20 |
Middle Tennessee 26 – Florida International 23
|
LOSS | $-20.00 | interest $20 (Tue fav edge 3-7); Bovada Sun 10/18 night |
| 8 | Delaware -3 vs Missouri State | -3 | +0.0 | -110 | $30 |
Missouri State 38 – Delaware 61
|
WIN | $+27.27 | official $60 edge-7+ - second $30 at Bovada (first $30 was a Kalshi moneyline by mistake); Bovada Sun 10/18 night |
| 8 | Marshall +3 vs South Alabama | +3 | +1.5 | -105 | $20 |
South Alabama 13 – Marshall 20
|
WIN | $+19.05 | Tue-Fri bet-them-all $20 (model side); Bovada Sun 10/18 night |
| 8 | New Mexico State -3 @ Sam Houston | -3 | +0.0 | +100 | $20 |
New Mexico State 30 – Sam Houston 24
|
WIN | $+20.00 | KEN's read: fades Sam Houston (2-0); Tue-Fri $20; Bovada Sun 10/18 night |
| 8 | Liberty -10.5 @ Kennesaw State | -10.5 | -2.0 | -105 | $20 |
Liberty 34 – Kennesaw State 6
|
WIN | $+19.05 | Tue-Fri bet-them-all $20 (model side); Bovada Sun 10/18 night |
| 8 | James Madison -11 @ App State | -11 | +2.0 | -110 | $30 |
James Madison 31 – App State 34
|
LOSS | $-30.00 | official $60 edge-7+ - second $30 at Bovada (first $30 on Kalshi at -10.5); Bovada Sun 10/18 night |
| 8 | East Carolina +10.5 @ Memphis | +10.5 | +0.0 | -105 | $20 |
East Carolina 34 – Memphis 41
|
WIN | $+19.05 | Tue-Fri bet-them-all $20 (model side); Bovada Sun 10/18 night |
| 8 | UConn -16 vs Massachusetts | -16 | -3.0 | -110 | $20 |
Massachusetts 16 – UConn 35
|
WIN | $+18.18 | Tue-Fri bet-them-all $20; Bovada Sun 10/18 night |
| 8 | Virginia -1 vs Duke | -1 | +1.5 | -110 | $20 |
Duke 19 – Virginia 16
|
LOSS | $-20.00 | Tue-Fri bet-them-all $20 (model side); Bovada Sun 10/18 night |
| 8 | Army +1 @ Tulsa | +1 | +2.5 | -110 | $30 |
Army 38 – Tulsa 35
|
WIN | $+27.27 | official $60 edge-7+ - second $30 at Bovada (first $30 on Kalshi at +1.5); Bovada Sun 10/18 night |
| 8 | Air Force -5 @ Wyoming | -5 | +2.0 | -115 | $20 |
Air Force 14 – Wyoming 28
|
LOSS | $-20.00 | interest $20 (Fri fav edge 3-7); Bovada Sun 10/18 night |
| 8 | NC State -7 @ Stanford | -7 | +0.5 | -110 | $20 |
NC State 28 – Stanford 31
|
LOSS | $-20.00 | interest $20 (Fri fav edge 3-7); NC State off a bye; Bovada Sun 10/18 night |
| 8 | Auburn +8 vs LSU | +8 | +1.0 | -110 | $30 |
LSU 38 – Auburn 17
|
LOSS | $-30.00 | KEN's read (SEC; eye test vs Georgia) - against the model and the letdown note (Auburn off the Georgia upset); Bovada Sun 10/18 night |
| 8 | Tennessee +1 @ South Carolina | +1 | -1.5 | -115 | $30 |
Tennessee 24 – South Carolina 27
|
LOSS | $-30.00 | KEN's read (SEC; also $30 Tennessee -2.5 on Kalshi = $60 on Tennessee). Line flipped from Tenn -1 to +1 Sun night - no news found to explain it; South Carolina off a bye; Bovada Sun 10/18 night |
| 8 | Iowa -7 @ Minnesota | -7 | +1.0 | -110 | $30 |
Iowa 10 – Minnesota 13
|
LOSS | $-30.00 | KEN's read: 'close enough' to the edge-7 rule; Ken is high on Iowa; Bovada Sun 10/18 night |
| 8 | Alabama -14.5 vs Texas A&M | -14.5 | -1.5 | -110 | $30 |
Texas A&M 20 – Alabama 31
|
LOSS | $-30.00 | KEN's read (SEC; fading A&M 2-0); Bovada Sun 10/18 night |
| 8 | Colorado +13.5 @ Oklahoma State | +13.5 | +0.0 | -110 | $60 |
Colorado 24 – Oklahoma State 57
|
LOSS | $-60.00 | official $60 edge-7+ (dog under 14); Bovada Sun 10/18 night |
| 8 | Texas -3.5 vs Ole Miss | -3.5 | -0.5 | +100 | $30 |
Ole Miss 27 – Texas 34
|
WIN | $+30.00 | KEN's read (SEC): 'I just don't believe Texas is going to lose 3 in a row' - switched from his earlier Ole Miss +3 read; Bovada Sun 10/18 night |
| 8 | Vanderbilt +10.5 @ Kentucky | +10.5 | +0.0 | -110 | $30 |
Vanderbilt 17 – Kentucky 34
|
LOSS | $-30.00 | SEC $20-tier model side (bet at $30); Bovada Sun 10/18 night |
| 8 | Mississippi State +2 vs Oklahoma | +2 | +0.5 | -110 | $20 |
Oklahoma 23 – Mississippi State 15
|
LOSS | $-20.00 | KEN's own read: Taylor expected to play (ESPN/On3 Sat); line moved OU -4.5 (Wed) -> -2. Bovada Sat 10/24; number and -110 confirmed by Ken |
| 8 | Indiana -7.5 @ Michigan | -7.5 | +0.0 | -110 | $20 |
Indiana 13 – Michigan 6
|
LOSS | $-20.00 | KEN's call at $20, not the $60 official stake: model says Indiana, his own big-game read says fade Indiana (paper Michigan +7 logged). Hoover cleared (no Indiana players on the availability report). Bovada Sat 10/24; number and -110 confirmed by Ken |
Season win totals
3 bets · $120 riding, $115.18 to win if all cash. Regular-season wins only; they settle when the team's regular season ends. Projected = wins so far plus the games left where the team is favored (the posted line if there is one, otherwise the model).
| Bet | Odds | Stake | To win | Record | Left | Projected | Where it stands | Next game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa State OVER 4.5 | -145 | $40 | $27.59 | 3-4 | 5 |
3
favored in 0 of 5 · 2 within 3 |
ALIVE needs 2 more wins in 5 games | vs Oklahoma State, Sat 10/31 |
| Florida State OVER 6.5 | +150 | $40 | $60.00 | 3-4 | 5 |
6
favored in 3 of 5 |
ALIVE needs 4 more wins in 5 games | vs Clemson, Sat 10/31 |
| Vanderbilt OVER 5.5 | -145 | $40 | $27.59 | 3-5 | 4 |
3
favored in 0 of 4 |
ALIVE needs 3 more wins in 4 games | at Mississippi State, Sat 11/07 |
Non-CFB bets
Counted in the balance above, left out of every CFB record. Record 2-0 · $+27.61
| Date | Sport | Bet | Odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-03 | MLB | Dodgers ML vs Braves NLDS Game 1 - Bovada; Ken's insurance bet against his Braves; odds ASSUMED -212 (DraftKings at the time) - Ken to confirm | -212 | $20 | WIN +9.43 |
| 10-01 | MLB | Braves ML vs Phillies NL Wild Card Game 3 (winner take all) - Bovada | -110 | $20 | WIN +18.18 |
Claude's picks — no money on these
Claude's weekly reads, graded the same way and counted in nothing. Record 8-9-1 · would have been $-113.67 at your usual stake. Closing line value +1.36, beat the close on 11 of 18.
| Wk | Bet | Line | CLV | Odds | Stake | Kickoff / score | Result | Payout | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Georgia -17.5 @ Arkansas | -17.5 | +7.0 | -110 | $50 |
Georgia 45 – Arkansas 17
|
WIN | $+45.45 | UGA has played nobody (63-3; 70-20) but Arkansas beat an FCS side 31-14; noon road SEC opener |
| 3 | Houston +14 @ Texas Tech | +14 | +5.5 | -110 | $50 |
Houston 26 – Texas Tech 28
|
WIN | $+45.45 | common opponent: Tech beat Oregon St by 11 away |
| 3 | Mississippi State +7.5 @ South Carolina | +7.5 | +4.5 | -110 | $50 |
Mississippi State 41 – South Carolina 34
|
WIN | $+45.45 | MSU won 38-13 at Minnesota; SC has beaten Kent State and Towson |
| 3 | Syracuse +10.5 @ Pittsburgh | +10.5 | -0.5 | -110 | $50 |
Syracuse 13 – Pittsburgh 27
|
LOSS | $-50.00 | Pitt won 12-7 over UCF last out; laying double digits with that offence |
| 4 | Georgia -10 vs Oklahoma | -10 | +1.0 | -110 | $50 |
Oklahoma 13 – Georgia 41
|
WIN | $+45.45 | seen at another book Sat 9/19 ~9:45 PM ET before Bovada posted; CFBD median at the time -13.5; Ken: Georgia is good and Oklahoma cannot score |
| 4 | Texas -6 @ Tennessee | -6 | -0.5 | -110 | $50 |
Texas 20 – Tennessee 17
|
LOSS | $-50.00 | seen at another book Sat 9/19 ~9:45 PM ET before Bovada posted; CFBD median at the time -4.5 |
| 4 | USC +6 vs Oregon | +6 | +2.5 | -110 | $50 |
Oregon 41 – USC 27
|
LOSS | $-50.00 | seen at another book Sat 9/19 ~9:45 PM ET before Bovada posted; CFBD median at the time USC -1.5; Ken: the one I love - Oregon is surprisingly bad |
| 4 | Oklahoma +14 @ Georgia | +14 | +3.0 | -110 | $50 |
Oklahoma 13 – Georgia 41
|
LOSS | $-50.00 | logged opposite Ken's Georgia -14 so the model and Ken are graded head to head on the same game |
| 5 | Vanderbilt +25 @ Georgia | +25 | -0.5 | -110 | $50 |
Vanderbilt 14 – Georgia 38
|
WIN | $+45.45 | logged opposite Ken's Georgia -25 so the model and Ken are graded head to head |
| 5 | Arkansas +14 @ Texas A&M | +14 | +0.0 | -110 | $50 |
Arkansas 7 – Texas A&M 34
|
LOSS | $-50.00 | logged opposite Ken's Texas A&M -14 so the model and Ken are graded head to head |
| 5 | South Carolina -3 vs Kentucky | -3 | -0.5 | -110 | $50 |
Kentucky 35 – South Carolina 34
|
LOSS | $-50.00 | logged opposite the Kentucky +3 lean; the model had SC -3 as a favourite-side pick (edge 3.1), dropped from the official card to avoid betting both sides |
| 5 | Western Kentucky +2.5 @ New Mexico State | +2.5 | +1.0 | -110 | $50 |
Western Kentucky 13 – New Mexico State 34
|
LOSS | $-50.00 | logged opposite Ken's NMSU -2.5 so Claude's lean and Ken's read are graded head to head; model NMSU by 0.8, WKU +0.7/game vs the spread excluding the week-1 Nevada blowout |
| 6 | South Carolina +11.5 @ Florida | +11.5 | +1.0 | -110 | $50 |
South Carolina 38 – Florida 19
|
WIN | $+45.45 | logged opposite Ken's bet on the same game (the model listed this side as a week-6 pick) so they are graded head to head |
| 6 | Washington State +5 @ Utah State | +5 | +1.0 | -110 | $50 |
Washington State 16 – Utah State 17
|
WIN | $+45.45 | logged opposite Ken's bet on the same game (the model listed this side as a week-6 pick) so they are graded head to head |
| 6 | Southern Miss +10 @ Troy | +10 | +0.5 | -110 | $50 |
Southern Miss 34 – Troy 55
|
LOSS | $-50.00 | logged opposite Ken's bet on the same game (the model listed this side as a week-6 pick) so they are graded head to head |
| 7 | Old Dominion +3.5 vs Georgia Southern | +3.5 | +0.5 | -110 | $50 |
Georgia Southern 23 – Old Dominion 15
|
LOSS | $-50.00 | Claude's lean (ODU 1-5 ATS tiebreaker; model GaSo by 1.9) - logged opposite Ken's Georgia Southern -3.5 so they are graded head to head |
| 8 | UCF +7 vs BYU | +7 | -0.5 | -110 | $20 |
BYU 31 – UCF 39
|
WIN | $+18.18 | HANGOVER PAPER: BYU off its win over AP #2 Notre Dame; model has BYU (edge 5.0); UCF also off a bye - no money |
| 8 | Michigan +7 vs Indiana | +7 | -0.5 | -110 | $20 |
Indiana 13 – Michigan 6
|
PUSH | $+0.00 | HANGOVER PAPER: Indiana off its loss to AP #4 Ohio State; model has Indiana (edge 7.7; held for Hoover's shoulder) - no money |