Nevada — 2026 schedule & results record 3-4 · model's picks 2-4 so far
Proj rating -10.0 · SOS -9.1 · Mean wins 5.3 · Picked 5-7 · Vegas 4.5
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Line / ATS | Model | Win prob | Pick | My bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sat 09/05 | Western Kentucky | home | W 49–14 | +0.25 ✓ | -6.2 | 36% | L ✗ | |
| 2 | Sat 09/12 | Montana State | home | L 7–20 | +5 ✗ | +21.0 | 88% | W ✗ | |
| 3 | Sat 09/19 | Middle Tennessee | away | L 20–27 | -3.75 ✗ | +0.8 | 52% | W ✗ | |
| 4 | Sat 09/26 | Air Force | home | L 33–36 | +5.25 ✓ | +0.3 | 50% | W ✗ |
Air Force -3.5 · LOSS -30 |
| 6 | Sat 10/10 | UTEP | away | W 30–13 | -10 ✓ | +0.6 | 52% | W ✓ |
Nevada -9.5 · WIN +27 |
| 7 | Sat 10/17 | North Dakota State | away | L 17–31 | +14.25 ✓ | — | — | — |
North Dakota State -16 · LOSS -20 |
| 8 | Sat 10/24 | San José State | home | W 28–13 | -5.75 ✓ | +8.5 | 69% | W ✓ | |
| 9 | Sat 10/31 | UCLA | away | — | +22.5 | -12.1 | 24% | L | |
| 10 | Fri 11/06 | New Mexico | home | — | — | -1.3 | 46% | L | |
| 11 | Sat 11/14 | Northern Illinois | away | — | — | -3.4 | 43% | L | |
| 12 | Sat 11/21 | Hawai'i | home | — | — | -4.9 | 39% | L | |
| 13 | Sat 11/28 | UNLV | away | — | — | -9.5 | 29% | L |
Picked counts every game the model favors as a win. Mean wins is the average over 10,000 simulated seasons — a team favored 60/40 in five games wins about three of them, not five, which is why Picked runs higher than Mean wins for good teams (and lower for bad ones). Compare Mean wins to Vegas; use this page to see where the wins come from.