Louisville — 2026 schedule & results record 4-3 · model's picks 5-2 so far
Proj rating 11.3 · SOS 1.6 · Mean wins 8.1 · Picked 11-1 · Vegas 8.5
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Line / ATS | Model | Win prob | Pick | My bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sun 09/06 | Ole Miss | neutral | L 38–41 | +6.5 ✓ | -7.0 | 34% | L ✓ |
Louisville +6.5 · WIN +40 |
| 2 | Fri 09/11 | Villanova | home | W 59–13 | -39 ✓ | +41.6 | 99% | W ✓ | |
| 3 | Sat 09/19 | SMU | home | W 41–31 | -3 ✓ | +5.2 | 62% | W ✓ | |
| 4 | Sat 09/26 | Wake Forest | home | L 27–30 | -11.25 ✗ | +11.8 | 75% | W ✗ | |
| 5 | Sat 10/03 | NC State | away | L 28–31 | -4.25 ✗ | +1.6 | 54% | W ✗ | |
| 6 | Fri 10/09 | Florida State | home | W 44–20 | -4.25 ✓ | +4.6 | 61% | W ✓ |
Florida State +3.5 · LOSS -20 |
| 7 | Sat 10/17 | Syracuse | away | W 34–26 | -14.5 ✗ | +12.4 | 76% | W ✓ | |
| 9 | Sat 10/31 | Stanford | home | — | -22.5 | +19.8 | 88% | W | |
| 10 | Sat 11/07 | Georgia Tech | away | — | — | +0.9 | 52% | W | |
| 11 | Sat 11/14 | North Carolina | away | — | — | +10.2 | 72% | W | |
| 12 | Sat 11/21 | Pittsburgh | home | — | — | +8.2 | 69% | W | |
| 13 | Sat 11/28 | Kentucky | away | — | — | +6.7 | 66% | W |
Picked counts every game the model favors as a win. Mean wins is the average over 10,000 simulated seasons — a team favored 60/40 in five games wins about three of them, not five, which is why Picked runs higher than Mean wins for good teams (and lower for bad ones). Compare Mean wins to Vegas; use this page to see where the wins come from.