Liberty — 2026 schedule & results record 6-1 · model's picks 6-1 so far
Proj rating -8.2 · SOS -12.3 · Mean wins 7.0 · Picked 9-3 · Vegas 8.5
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Line / ATS | Model | Win prob | Pick | My bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sat 09/05 | James Madison | away | L 13–20 | +6 ✗ | -12.9 | 22% | L ✓ | |
| 2 | Sat 09/12 | Gardner-Webb | home | W 24–23 | -28.5 ✗ | +22.7 | 91% | W ✓ | |
| 3 | Sat 09/19 | Ball State | home | W 51–15 | -14.5 ✓ | +12.7 | 77% | W ✓ | |
| 4 | Thu 09/24 | Coastal Carolina | away | W 34–17 | -2.5 ✓ | +1.1 | 52% | W ✓ |
Liberty -2.5 · WIN +25 |
| 5 | Fri 10/02 | Delaware | away | W 30–14 | -7 ✓ | -0.8 | 48% | L ✗ |
Liberty -7 · WIN +18 |
| 6 | Thu 10/08 | Sam Houston | home | W 35–3 | -13.5 ✓ | +13.0 | 77% | W ✓ |
Liberty -14 · WIN +29 |
| 8 | Thu 10/22 | Kennesaw State | away | W 34–6 | -8.5 ✓ | +1.8 | 54% | W ✓ |
Liberty -10.5 · WIN +19 |
| 9 | Sat 10/31 | Florida International | home | — | -14 | +2.2 | 55% | W | |
| 10 | Sat 11/07 | New Mexico State | away | — | — | +3.4 | 58% | W | |
| 11 | Sat 11/14 | Middle Tennessee | home | — | — | +8.1 | 68% | W | |
| 12 | Sat 11/21 | Western Kentucky | home | — | — | -4.5 | 39% | L | |
| 13 | Sat 11/28 | Missouri State | away | — | — | +1.5 | 55% | W |
Picked counts every game the model favors as a win. Mean wins is the average over 10,000 simulated seasons — a team favored 60/40 in five games wins about three of them, not five, which is why Picked runs higher than Mean wins for good teams (and lower for bad ones). Compare Mean wins to Vegas; use this page to see where the wins come from.