Toledo — 2026 game-by-game
Proj rating 4.4 · SOS -10.3 · Mean wins 8.4 · Picked 11-0 · Vegas 7.5
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Site | Opp rating | Pred margin | Win prob | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2026-09-05 | Michigan State | away | -3.0 | +4.3 | 59% | W |
| 2 | 2026-09-12 | Central Connecticut | home | -28.7 | +34.9 | 98% | W |
| 3 | 2026-09-19 | Temple | home | -5.5 | +12.3 | 77% | W |
| 4 | 2026-09-26 | San Diego State | home | 6.6 | +0.6 | 52% | W |
| 5 | 2026-10-03 | Ball State | away | -18.4 | +19.4 | 87% | W |
| 6 | 2026-10-10 | Buffalo | home | -9.6 | +16.4 | 82% | W |
| 7 | 2026-10-17 | Eastern Michigan | away | -8.7 | +10.0 | 72% | W |
| 8 | 2026-10-24 | Western Michigan | home | 0.3 | +6.7 | 65% | W |
| 11 | 2026-11-11 | Massachusetts | home | -29.7 | +35.9 | 98% | W |
| 12 | 2026-11-21 | Bowling Green | home | -12.5 | +19.2 | 87% | W |
| 13 | 2026-11-27 | Ohio | away | -4.0 | +5.4 | 62% | W |
Picked counts every game the model favors as a win. Mean wins is the average over 10,000 simulated seasons — a team favored 60/40 in five games wins about three of them, not five, which is why Picked runs higher than Mean wins for good teams (and lower for bad ones). Compare Mean wins to Vegas; use this page to see where the wins come from.