Toledo — 2026 schedule & results record 6-2 · model's picks 6-2 so far
Proj rating 4.4 · SOS -10.3 · Mean wins 8.4 · Picked 11-1 · Vegas 7.5
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Line / ATS | Model | Win prob | Pick | My bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fri 09/04 | Michigan State | away | L 20–30 | +10 push | +4.3 | 59% | W ✗ | |
| 2 | Sat 09/12 | Central Connecticut | home | W 63–10 | -36.5 ✓ | +34.9 | 98% | W ✓ | |
| 3 | Sat 09/19 | Temple | home | W 49–48 | -4.75 ✗ | +12.3 | 77% | W ✓ | |
| 4 | Sat 09/26 | San Diego State | home | W 41–16 | -2.75 ✓ | +0.6 | 52% | W ✓ | |
| 5 | Sat 10/03 | Ball State | away | W 39–24 | -20.75 ✗ | +19.4 | 87% | W ✓ |
Toledo -20 · LOSS -30 |
| 6 | Sat 10/10 | Buffalo | home | L 8–23 | -18.75 ✗ | +16.4 | 82% | W ✗ | |
| 7 | Sat 10/17 | Eastern Michigan | away | W 34–14 | -7.25 ✓ | +10.0 | 72% | W ✓ |
Toledo -5 · WIN +27 |
| 8 | Sat 10/24 | Western Michigan | home | W 45–38 | -2.5 ✓ | +6.7 | 65% | W ✓ | |
| 10 | Wed 11/04 | Sacramento State | away | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 11 | Wed 11/11 | Massachusetts | home | — | — | +35.9 | 98% | W | |
| 12 | Fri 11/20 | Bowling Green | home | — | — | +19.2 | 87% | W | |
| 13 | Fri 11/27 | Ohio | away | — | — | +5.4 | 62% | W |
Picked counts every game the model favors as a win. Mean wins is the average over 10,000 simulated seasons — a team favored 60/40 in five games wins about three of them, not five, which is why Picked runs higher than Mean wins for good teams (and lower for bad ones). Compare Mean wins to Vegas; use this page to see where the wins come from.