Buffalo — 2026 schedule & results record 5-3 · model's picks 7-1 so far
Proj rating -9.6 · SOS -10.5 · Mean wins 6.2 · Picked 6-6 · Vegas 5.5
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Line / ATS | Model | Win prob | Pick | My bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thu 09/03 | UAlbany | home | W 21–17 | -18.5 ✗ | +21.3 | 90% | W ✓ | |
| 2 | Sat 09/12 | Florida International | away | L 20–33 | +8.75 ✗ | -4.7 | 40% | L ✓ | |
| 3 | Sat 09/19 | Penn State | away | L 13–55 | +39.75 ✗ | -26.4 | 6% | L ✓ | |
| 4 | Sat 09/26 | Robert Morris | home | W 31–28 | -27.75 ✗ | +21.3 | 89% | W ✓ | |
| 5 | Sat 10/03 | Western Michigan | home | L 17–20 | +13.25 ✓ | -6.9 | 35% | L ✓ | |
| 6 | Sat 10/10 | Toledo | away | W 23–8 | +18.75 ✓ | -16.4 | 18% | L ✗ | |
| 7 | Sat 10/17 | Massachusetts | home | W 25–18 | -6.75 ✓ | +22.3 | 90% | W ✓ |
Buffalo -3.5 · WIN +29 |
| 8 | Sat 10/24 | Bowling Green | home | W 31–24 | -3 ✓ | +5.6 | 63% | W ✓ | |
| 10 | Tue 11/03 | Miami (OH) | away | — | — | -7.8 | 32% | L | |
| 11 | Wed 11/11 | Ball State | away | — | — | +5.8 | 63% | W | |
| 12 | Wed 11/18 | Central Michigan | home | — | — | +0.1 | 49% | W | |
| 13 | Fri 11/27 | Akron | away | — | — | -4.2 | 40% | L |
Picked counts every game the model favors as a win. Mean wins is the average over 10,000 simulated seasons — a team favored 60/40 in five games wins about three of them, not five, which is why Picked runs higher than Mean wins for good teams (and lower for bad ones). Compare Mean wins to Vegas; use this page to see where the wins come from.