Troy — 2026 schedule & results record 3-4 · model's picks 6-1 so far
Proj rating -5.3 · SOS -7.2 · Mean wins 6.4 · Picked 5-7 · Vegas 6.5
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Line / ATS | Model | Win prob | Pick | My bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sat 09/05 | Sam Houston | home | W 24–21 | -16 ✗ | +15.8 | 82% | W ✓ | |
| 2 | Sat 09/12 | Alabama State | home | W 34–17 | -23.75 ✗ | +25.5 | 94% | W ✓ | |
| 3 | Sat 09/19 | Missouri | away | L 17–27 | +26.75 ✓ | -19.4 | 13% | L ✓ | |
| 4 | Sat 09/26 | Utah State | away | L 10–21 | +3 ✗ | -5.1 | 38% | L ✓ | |
| 6 | Tue 10/06 | Southern Miss | home | W 55–34 | -9.5 ✓ | +0.5 | 52% | W ✓ |
Troy -10 · WIN +18 Southern Miss +10 · LOSS -50 |
| 7 | Sat 10/17 | Louisiana | away | L 6–33 | +3 ✗ | -3.4 | 42% | L ✓ |
Louisiana -4 · WIN +27 |
| 8 | Sat 10/24 | UL Monroe | home | L 14–21 | -13.5 ✗ | +13.8 | 79% | W ✗ | |
| 9 | Thu 10/29 | James Madison | away | — | +21 | -10.1 | 28% | L | |
| 10 | Sat 11/07 | Louisiana Tech | home | — | — | -0.6 | 48% | L | |
| 11 | Sat 11/14 | South Alabama | away | — | — | -1.0 | 48% | L | |
| 12 | Sat 11/21 | Georgia Southern | home | — | — | +6.7 | 66% | W | |
| 13 | Sat 11/28 | Arkansas State | away | — | — | -0.4 | 48% | L |
Picked counts every game the model favors as a win. Mean wins is the average over 10,000 simulated seasons — a team favored 60/40 in five games wins about three of them, not five, which is why Picked runs higher than Mean wins for good teams (and lower for bad ones). Compare Mean wins to Vegas; use this page to see where the wins come from.