Hawai'i — 2026 schedule & results record 2-6 · model's picks 3-5 so far
Proj rating -2.1 · SOS -8.2 · Mean wins 6.2 · Picked 9-3 · Vegas 7.5
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Line / ATS | Model | Win prob | Pick | My bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sat 08/29 | Stanford | away | L 27–37 | +4.75 ✗ | +1.3 | 53% | W ✗ |
Hawai'i +4 · LOSS -50 |
| 1 | Sat 09/05 | UNLV | home | L 6–21 | +2.75 ✗ | +3.7 | 58% | W ✗ | |
| 2 | Sat 09/12 | New Mexico State | home | W 29–19 | -7.5 ✓ | +14.9 | 81% | W ✓ | |
| 4 | Sat 09/26 | Wyoming | away | L 10–27 | -2.25 ✗ | +3.5 | 58% | W ✗ | |
| 5 | Sat 10/03 | San José State | home | L 16–20 | -2.75 ✗ | +16.1 | 83% | W ✗ | |
| 6 | Sat 10/10 | Arizona State | away | L 12–30 | +20.75 ✓ | -9.0 | 30% | L ✓ | |
| 7 | Sat 10/17 | New Mexico | home | L 10–21 | +14.5 ✓ | +6.3 | 65% | W ✗ |
New Mexico -14 · LOSS -30 |
| 8 | Sat 10/24 | Northern Illinois | away | W 56–21 | -3 ✓ | +4.3 | 60% | W ✓ | |
| 10 | Sat 11/07 | UTEP | away | — | — | +8.3 | 69% | W | |
| 11 | Sat 11/14 | North Dakota State | home | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 12 | Sat 11/21 | Nevada | away | — | — | +4.9 | 61% | W | |
| 13 | Sat 11/28 | Sacramento State | home | — | — | — | — | — |
Picked counts every game the model favors as a win. Mean wins is the average over 10,000 simulated seasons — a team favored 60/40 in five games wins about three of them, not five, which is why Picked runs higher than Mean wins for good teams (and lower for bad ones). Compare Mean wins to Vegas; use this page to see where the wins come from.